
@article{zigler_estimating_2012,
	title = {Estimating causal effects of air quality regulations using principal stratification for spatially correlated multivariate intermediate outcomes},
	volume = {13},
	issn = {1468-4357},
	doi = {10.1093/biostatistics/kxr052},
	abstract = {Methods for causal inference regarding health effects of air quality regulations are met with unique challenges because (1) changes in air quality are intermediates on the causal pathway between regulation and health, (2) regulations typically affect multiple pollutants on the causal pathway towards health, and (3) regulating a given location can affect pollution at other locations, that is, there is interference between observations. We propose a principal stratification method designed to examine causal effects of a regulation on health that are and are not associated with causal effects of the regulation on air quality. A novel feature of our approach is the accommodation of a continuously scaled multivariate intermediate response vector representing multiple pollutants. Furthermore, we use a spatial hierarchical model for potential pollution concentrations and ultimately use estimates from this model to assess validity of assumptions regarding interference. We apply our method to estimate causal effects of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments among approximately 7 million Medicare enrollees living within 6 miles of a pollution monitor.},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Biostatistics (Oxford, England)},
	author = {Zigler, Corwin M and Dominici, Francesca and Wang, Yun},
	month = apr,
	year = {2012},
	pmid = {22267524},
	keywords = {Aged, Air pollution, Bayes Theorem, Biostatistics, Causality, Environmental Monitoring, Humans, Linear Models, Multivariate Analysis, Public Health, United States, United States Environmental Protection Agency},
	pages = {289--302}
}

@article{rava_does_2011,
	title = {Does attainment status for the {PM}10 {National} {Air} {Ambient} {Quality} {Standard} change the trend in ambient levels of particulate matter?},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {1873-9318},
	url = {http://www.springerlink.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/content/u2781quu4hr13681/},
	doi = {10.1007/s11869-010-0086-3},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2011-08-06},
	journal = {Air Quality, Atmosphere \& Health},
	author = {Rava, Marta and White, Ronald H. and Dominici, Francesca},
	month = jun,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {133--143},
	file = {SpringerLink - Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, Volume 4, Number 2:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/9TMVM2M2/u2781quu4hr13681.html:text/html}
}

@misc{health_effects_institute_strategic_2005,
	title = {Strategic {Plan} for {Understanding} {Health} {Effects} of {Air} {Pollution} 2005--2010},
	publisher = {Health Effects Institute},
	author = {{Health Effects Institute}},
	year = {2005}
}

@misc{us_epa_air_????,
	title = {Air regulation support research {\textbar} {Research} and {Development} {\textbar} {US} {EPA}},
	url = {http://www.epa.gov/ord/ca/quick-finder/accountability.htm},
	urldate = {2011-02-14},
	author = {US EPA, Nanotechnology Research},
	file = {Air regulation support research | Research and Development | US EPA:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/4P9M9VGE/accountability.html:text/html}
}

@article{sobel_what_2006,
	title = {What {Do} {Randomized} {Studies} of {Housing} {Mobility} {Demonstrate}?},
	volume = {101},
	issn = {0162-1459},
	number = {476},
	journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Sobel, M. E},
	year = {2006},
	pages = {1398--1407}
}

@article{hill_environment_1965,
	title = {The environment and disease: association or causation?},
	volume = {58},
	shorttitle = {The environment and disease},
	url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1898525/},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2012-12-12},
	journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine},
	author = {Hill, A. B.},
	year = {1965},
	pages = {295},
	file = {[PDF] from nih.gov:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/PDCTQ82P/Hill - 1965 - The environment and disease association or causat.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/PRC5HIA7/PMC1898525.html:text/html}
}

@article{gilbert_evaluating_2008,
	title = {Evaluating candidate principal surrogate endpoints},
	volume = {64},
	issn = {1541-0420},
	url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18363776},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1541-0420.2008.01014.x},
	abstract = {SUMMARY: Frangakis and Rubin (2002, Biometrics 58, 21-29) proposed a new definition of a surrogate endpoint (a "principal" surrogate) based on causal effects. We introduce an estimand for evaluating a principal surrogate, the causal effect predictiveness (CEP) surface, which quantifies how well causal treatment effects on the biomarker predict causal treatment effects on the clinical endpoint. Although the CEP surface is not identifiable due to missing potential outcomes, it can be identified by incorporating a baseline covariate(s) that predicts the biomarker. Given case-cohort sampling of such a baseline predictor and the biomarker in a large blinded randomized clinical trial, we develop an estimated likelihood method for estimating the CEP surface. This estimation assesses the "surrogate value" of the biomarker for reliably predicting clinical treatment effects for the same or similar setting as the trial. A CEP surface plot provides a way to compare the surrogate value of multiple biomarkers. The approach is illustrated by the problem of assessing an immune response to a vaccine as a surrogate endpoint for infection.},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2009-11-25},
	journal = {Biometrics},
	author = {Gilbert, Peter B and Hudgens, Michael G},
	month = dec,
	year = {2008},
	pmid = {18363776},
	keywords = {AIDS Vaccines, Biological Markers, Biometry, Endpoint Determination, Humans, Immunity, Infection, Likelihood Functions, Predictive Value of Tests, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Treatment Outcome},
	pages = {1146--1154}
}

@article{frangakis_clustered_2002,
	title = {Clustered encouragement designs with individual noncompliance: {{B}}ayesian inference with randomization, and application to advance directive forms},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {1465-4644},
	shorttitle = {Clustered encouragement designs with individual noncompliance},
	url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12933609},
	doi = {12933609},
	abstract = {In many studies comparing a new 'target treatment' with a control target treatment, the received treatment does not always agree with assigned treatment-that is, the compliance is imperfect. An obvious example arises when ethical or practical constraints prevent even the randomized assignment of receipt of the new target treatment but allow the randomized assignment of the encouragement to receive this treatment. In fact, many randomized experiments where compliance is not enforced by the experimenter (e.g. with non-blinded assignment) may be more accurately thought of as randomized encouragement designs. Moreover, often the assignment of encouragement is at the level of clusters (e.g. doctors) where the compliance with the assignment varies across the units (e.g. patients) within clusters. We refer to such studies as 'clustered encouragement designs' (CEDs) and they arise relatively frequently (e.g. Sommer and Zeger, 1991; McDonald et al., 1992; Dexter et al., 1998) Here, we propose Bayesian methodology for causal inference for the effect of the new target treatment versus the control target treatment in the randomized CED with all-or-none compliance at the unit level, which generalizes the approach of Hirano et al. (2000) in important and surprisingly subtle ways, to account for the clustering, which is necessary for statistical validity. We illustrate our methods using data from a recent study exploring the role of physician consulting in increasing patients' completion of Advance Directive forms.},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2008-09-30},
	journal = {Biostatistics},
	author = {Frangakis, Constantine E. and Rubin, Donald B. and Zhou, Xiao-Hua},
	month = jun,
	year = {2002},
	pmid = {12933609},
	pages = {147--64}
}

@article{neyman_application_1923,
	title = {On the {Application} of {Probability} {Theory} to {Agricultural} {Experiments}. {Essay} on {Principles}. {Section} 9},
	volume = {5},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Statistical Science},
	author = {Neyman, J.},
	year = {1923},
	pages = {465--472}
}

@article{dominici_fine_2006,
	title = {Fine {Particulate} {Air} {Pollution} and {Hospital} {Admission} for {Cardiovascular} and {Respiratory} {Diseases}},
	volume = {295},
	url = {http://jama.ama-assn.org/content/295/10/1127.abstract},
	doi = {10.1001/jama.295.10.1127},
	abstract = {Context  Evidence on the health risks associated with short-term exposure to fine particles (particulate matter ≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter [PM2.5]) is limited. Results from the new national monitoring network for PM2.5 make possible systematic research on health risks at national and regional scales.Objectives  To estimate risks of cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions associated with short-term exposure to PM2.5 for Medicare enrollees and to explore heterogeneity of the variation of risks across regions.Design, Setting, and Participants  A national database comprising daily time-series data daily for 1999 through 2002 on hospital admission rates (constructed from the Medicare National Claims History Files) for cardiovascular and respiratory outcomes and injuries, ambient PM2.5 levels, and temperature and dew-point temperature for 204 US urban counties (population {\textgreater}200 000) with 11.5 million Medicare enrollees (aged {\textgreater}65 years) living an average of 5.9 miles from a PM2.5 monitor.Main Outcome Measures  Daily counts of county-wide hospital admissions for primary diagnosis of cerebrovascular, peripheral, and ischemic heart diseases, heart rhythm, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and respiratory infection, and injuries as a control outcome.Results  There was a short-term increase in hospital admission rates associated with PM2.5 for all of the health outcomes except injuries. The largest association was for heart failure, which had a 1.28\% (95\% confidence interval, 0.78\%-1.78\%) increase in risk per 10-μg/m3 increase in same-day PM2.5. Cardiovascular risks tended to be higher in counties located in the Eastern region of the United States, which included the Northeast, the Southeast, the Midwest, and the South.Conclusion  Short-term exposure to PM2.5 increases the risk for hospital admission for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.},
	number = {10},
	urldate = {2011-08-15},
	journal = {JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association},
	author = {Dominici, Francesca and Peng, Roger D. and Bell, Michelle L. and Pham, Luu and McDermott, Aidan and Zeger, Scott L. and Samet, Jonathan M.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2006},
	pages = {1127 --1134},
	file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/IRCMN4UH/Dominici et al. - 2006 - Fine Particulate Air Pollution and Hospital Admiss.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/5CHCV6IC/1127.html:text/html}
}

@techreport{national_research_council_dietary_2005,
	address = {Washington, DC},
	title = {Dietary {Supplements}: {A} {Framework} for {Evaluating} {Safety}},
	shorttitle = {Dietary {Supplements}},
	url = {http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=tLCEkPDXXIMC&oi=fnd&pg=PR1&dq=ietary+supplements:+A+framework+for+evaluating+safety&ots=n-Oeq34j2z&sig=74aOavSzUUf6L5iXC8-lRk1C_-w},
	urldate = {2012-12-14},
	institution = {National Academies Press},
	author = {{National Research Council}},
	year = {2005},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/MGVPJH28/books.html:text/html}
}

@article{crump_dealing_2009,
	title = {Dealing with limited overlap in estimation of average treatment effects},
	volume = {96},
	url = {http://biomet.oxfordjournals.org/content/96/1/187.abstract},
	doi = {10.1093/biomet/asn055},
	abstract = {Estimation of average treatment effects under unconfounded or ignorable treatment assignment is often hampered by lack of overlap in the covariate distributions between treatment groups. This lack of overlap can lead to imprecise estimates, and can make commonly used estimators sensitive to the choice of specification. In such cases researchers have often used ad hoc methods for trimming the sample. We develop a systematic approach to addressing lack of overlap. We characterize optimal subsamples for which the average treatment effect can be estimated most precisely. Under some conditions, the optimal selection rules depend solely on the propensity score. For a wide range of distributions, a good approximation to the optimal rule is provided by the simple rule of thumb to discard all units with estimated propensity scores outside the range [0.1,0.9].},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2011-10-10},
	journal = {Biometrika},
	author = {Crump, Richard K. and Hotz, V. Joseph and Imbens, Guido W. and Mitnik, Oscar A.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {187 --199},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/ZP946CTX/187.html:text/html}
}

@misc{national_research_council_board_on_environmental_studies_and_toxicology_research_2004,
	title = {Research {Priorities} for {Airborne} {Particulate} {Matter}: {IV}.  {Continuing} {Research} {Progress}},
	publisher = {National Academies Press},
	author = {{National Research Council Board on Environmental Studies {and} Toxicology}},
	year = {2004}
}

@article{gallop_mediation_2009,
	title = {Mediation analysis with principal stratification},
	volume = {28},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.3533},
	doi = {10.1002/sim.3533},
	abstract = {In assessing the mechanism of treatment efficacy in randomized clinical trials, investigators often perform mediation analyses by analyzing if the significant intent-to-treat treatment effect on outcome occurs through or around a third intermediate or mediating variable: indirect and direct effects, respectively. Standard mediation analyses assume sequential ignorability, i.e. conditional on covariates the intermediate or mediating factor is randomly assigned, as is the treatment in a randomized clinical trial. This research focuses on the application of the principal stratification (PS) approach for estimating the direct effect of a randomized treatment but without the standard sequential ignorability assumption. This approach is used to estimate the direct effect of treatment as a difference between expectations of potential outcomes within latent subgroups of participants for whom the intermediate variable behavior would be constant, regardless of the randomized treatment assignment. Using a Bayesian estimation procedure, we also assess the sensitivity of results based on the PS approach to heterogeneity of the variances among these principal strata. We assess this approach with simulations and apply it to two psychiatric examples. Both examples and the simulations indicated robustness of our findings to the homogeneous variance assumption. However, simulations showed that the magnitude of treatment effects derived under the PS approach were sensitive to model mis-specification. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2009-11-21},
	journal = {Statistics in Medicine},
	author = {Gallop, Robert and Small, Dylan S. and Lin, Julia Y. and Elliott, Michael R. and Joffe, Marshall and {Ten Have}, Thomas R.},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {1108--1130}
}

@article{joffe_related_2009,
	title = {Related {Causal} {Frameworks} for {Surrogate} {Outcomes}},
	volume = {65},
	issn = {0006341X},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/doi/10.1111/j.1541-0420.2008.01106.x/abstract},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1541-0420.2008.01106.x},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2010-09-29},
	journal = {Biometrics},
	author = {Joffe, Marshall M. and Greene, Tom},
	month = may,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {530--538},
	file = {Related Causal Frameworks for Surrogate Outcomes - Joffe - 2008 - Biometrics - Wiley Online Library:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/8S2Q8K84/abstract.html:text/html}
}

@article{vanderweele_conceptual_2009,
	title = {Conceptual issues concerning mediation, interventions and composition},
	volume = {2},
	url = {https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/954554},
	urldate = {2012-11-19},
	journal = {Statistics and its Interface},
	author = {VanderWeele, T. and Vansteelandt, S.},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {457--468},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/33ESCFKA/954554.html:text/html}
}

@article{frangakis_principal_2002,
	title = {Principal stratification in causal inference},
	volume = {58},
	url = {http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.0006-341X.2002.00021.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.0006-341X.2002.00021.x},
	abstract = {Summary. Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable under each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate, such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance, and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to formulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority.},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2008-05-20},
	journal = {Biometrics},
	author = {Frangakis, Constantine E. and Rubin, Donald B.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2002},
	pages = {21--29}
}

@article{dominici_particulate_2007,
	title = {Particulate {Air} {Pollution} and {Mortality} in the {United} {States}: {Did} the {Risks} {Change} from 1987 to 2000?},
	volume = {166},
	shorttitle = {Particulate {Air} {Pollution} and {Mortality} in the {United} {States}},
	url = {http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/166/8/880.abstract},
	doi = {10.1093/aje/kwm222},
	abstract = {Evaluation of the public health impact of air quality regulations, referred to as accountability research, is increasingly viewed as a necessary component of responsible governmental policy interventions. The authors present an example of accountability assessment based on evaluating change in the short-term effect of airborne particles over a period of increasingly stringent regulation that might have changed the chemical composition and toxicity of these particles. They used updated data and methods of the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study to estimate national average relative rates of the effects of particulate matter ≤10 μm in aerodynamic diameter on all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and on other-cause mortality for 1987–2000. They estimated national average relative rates of the effects of particulate matter ≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter on all-cause mortality for 1999–2000. The authors found strong evidence that lag 1 exposures to particulate matter ≤10 μm and ≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter continue to be associated with increased mortality. They also found a weak indication that the lag 1 effects of particulate matter ≤10 μm in aerodynamic diameter on mortality declined during 1987–2000 and that this decline occurred mostly in the eastern United States. The methodology presented can be used to track the health effects of air pollution routinely on regional and national scales.},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2010-11-10},
	journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
	author = {Dominici, Francesca and Peng, Roger D. and Zeger, Scott L. and White, Ronald H. and Samet, Jonathan M.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2007},
	pages = {880 --888},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/TEQDET4U/880.html:text/html}
}

@book{u.s._epa_integrated_2009,
	address = {Research Triangel Park, NC},
	title = {Integrated {Science} {Assessment} for {Particulate} {Matter}},
	publisher = {U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development},
	author = {{U.S. EPA}},
	year = {2009}
}

@article{bell_ozone_2004,
	title = {Ozone and {Short}-term {Mortality} in 95 {US} {Urban} {Communities}, 1987-2000},
	volume = {292},
	url = {http://jama.ama-assn.org/content/292/19/2372.abstract},
	doi = {10.1001/jama.292.19.2372},
	abstract = {Context  Ozone has been associated with various adverse health effects, including increased rates of hospital admissions and exacerbation of respiratory illnesses. Although numerous time-series studies have estimated associations between day-to-day variation in ozone levels and mortality counts, results have been inconclusive.Objective  To investigate whether short-term (daily and weekly) exposure to ambient ozone is associated with mortality in the United States.Design and Setting  Using analytical methods and databases developed for the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study, we estimated a national average relative rate of mortality associated with short-term exposure to ambient ozone for 95 large US urban communities from 1987-2000. We used distributed-lag models for estimating community-specific relative rates of mortality adjusted for time-varying confounders (particulate matter, weather, seasonality, and long-term trends) and hierarchical models for combining relative rates across communities to estimate a national average relative rate, taking into account spatial heterogeneity.Main Outcome Measure  Daily counts of total non–injury-related mortality and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in 95 large US communities during a 14-year period.Results  A 10-ppb increase in the previous week’s ozone was associated with a 0.52\% increase in daily mortality (95\% posterior interval [PI], 0.27\%-0.77\%) and a 0.64\% increase in cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (95\% PI, 0.31\%-0.98\%). Effect estimates for aggregate ozone during the previous week were larger than for models considering only a single day’s exposure. Results were robust to adjustment for particulate matter, weather, seasonality, and long-term trends.Conclusions  These results indicate a statistically significant association between short-term changes in ozone and mortality on average for 95 large US urban communities, which include about 40\% of the total US population. The findings indicate that this widespread pollutant adversely affects public health.},
	number = {19},
	urldate = {2011-08-15},
	journal = {JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association},
	author = {Bell, Michelle L. and McDermott, Aidan and Zeger, Scott L. and Samet, Jonathan M. and Dominici, Francesca},
	month = nov,
	year = {2004},
	pages = {2372 --2378},
	file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/GKQ4B3TV/Bell et al. - 2004 - Ozone and Short-term Mortality in 95 US Urban Comm.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/P9XURE8V/2372.html:text/html}
}

@book{hei_accountability_working_group_assessing_2003,
	address = {Boston, MA},
	title = {Assessing the {Health} {Impact} of {Air} {Quality} {Regulations}: {Concepts} and {Methods} for {Accountability} {Research}.  {Communication} 11.},
	publisher = {Health Effects Institute},
	author = {{HEI Accountability Working Group}},
	year = {2003}
}

@article{albert_mediation_2008,
	title = {Mediation analysis via potential outcomes models},
	volume = {27},
	issn = {02776715},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/doi/10.1002/sim.3016/abstract},
	doi = {10.1002/sim.3016},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2010-11-29},
	journal = {Statistics in Medicine},
	author = {Albert, Jeffrey M.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2008},
	pages = {1282--1304},
	file = {Mediation analysis via potential outcomes models - Albert - 2007 - Statistics in Medicine - Wiley Online Library:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/RDEJHP2X/abstract.html:text/html}
}

@article{hudgens_toward_2008,
	title = {Toward causal inference with interference},
	volume = {103},
	number = {482},
	journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Hudgens, Michael and Halloran, Elizabeth},
	month = jun,
	year = {2008},
	pages = {832--842}
}

@article{hernan_observational_2008,
	title = {Observational {Studies} {Analyzed} {Like} {Randomized} {Experiments}},
	volume = {19},
	issn = {1044-3983},
	url = {http://ovidsp.tx.ovid.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/sp-3.8.0a/ovidweb.cgi?&S=DOJPFPLDGFDDHDNINCPKNGOBGFHJAA00&Link+Set=S.sh.18.19.22.25%7c2%7csl_10},
	doi = {10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181875e61},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2012-12-12},
	journal = {Epidemiology},
	author = {Hernan, Miguel A. and Alonso, Alvaro and Logan, Roger and Grodstein, Francine and Michels, Karin B. and Willett, Walter C. and Manson, JoAnn E. and Robins, James M.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2008},
	pages = {766--779},
	file = {Ovid\: Observational Studies Analyzed Like Randomized Experiments\: An Application to Postmenopausal Hormone Therapy and Coronary Heart Disease.:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/FTTTF8UX/ovidweb.html:text/html}
}

@article{king_dangers_2006,
	title = {The {Dangers} of {Extreme} {Counterfactuals}},
	volume = {14},
	url = {http://pan.oxfordjournals.org/content/14/2/131.abstract},
	doi = {10.1093/pan/mpj004},
	abstract = {We address the problem that occurs when inferences about counterfactuals—predictions, “what-if” questions, and causal effects—are attempted far from the available data. The danger of these extreme counterfactuals is that substantive conclusions drawn from statistical models that fit the data well turn out to be based largely on speculation hidden in convenient modeling assumptions that few would be willing to defend. Yet existing statistical strategies provide few reliable means of identifying extreme counterfactuals. We offer a proof that inferences farther from the data allow more model dependence and then develop easy-to-apply methods to evaluate how model dependent our answers would be to specified counterfactuals. These methods require neither sensitivity testing over specified classes of models nor evaluating any specific modeling assumptions. If an analysis fails the simple tests we offer, then we know that substantive results are sensitive to at least some modeling choices that are not based on empirical evidence. Free software that accompanies this article implements all the methods developed.},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2011-10-10},
	journal = {Political Analysis},
	author = {King, Gary and Zeng, Langche},
	year = {2006},
	pages = {131 --159},
	file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/5WXK66QF/King and Zeng - 2006 - The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/KD4VSR6D/131.full.html:text/html}
}

@article{clancy_effect_2002,
	title = {Effect of air-pollution control on death rates in {Dublin}, {Ireland}: an intervention study},
	volume = {360},
	shorttitle = {Effect of air-pollution control on death rates in {Dublin}, {Ireland}},
	number = {9341},
	journal = {The Lancet},
	author = {Clancy, L. and Goodman, P. and Sinclair, H. and Dockery, D. W},
	year = {2002},
	pages = {1210--1214}
}

@misc{_plain_????,
	title = {Plain {English} {Guide} to {The} {Clean} {Air} {Act} {\textbar} {Air} \& {Radiation} {\textbar} {US} {EPA}},
	url = {http://www.epa.gov/air/peg/index.html},
	urldate = {2010-12-20},
	file = {Plain English Guide to The Clean Air Act | Air & Radiation | US EPA:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/K859UX3P/index.html:text/html}
}

@article{barr_cap_2010,
	title = {Cap and {Trade} {Legislation} for {Greenhouse} {Gas} {Emissions}},
	volume = {303},
	url = {http://jama.ama-assn.org/content/303/1/69.short},
	doi = {10.1001/jama.2009.1955},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2011-08-06},
	journal = {JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association},
	author = {Barr, Christopher D. and Dominici, Francesca},
	month = jan,
	year = {2010},
	pages = {69 --70},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/JGBGCTKC/69.html:text/html}
}

@article{laden_reduction_2006,
	title = {Reduction in {Fine} {Particulate} {Air} {Pollution} and {Mortality}: {Extended} follow-up of the {Harvard} {Six} {Cities} {Study}},
	shorttitle = {Reduction in {Fine} {Particulate} {Air} {Pollution} and {Mortality}},
	url = {http://ajrccm.atsjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/200503-443OCv1},
	doi = {10.1164/rccm.200503-443OC},
	abstract = {Rationale: A large body of epidemiologic literature has found an association of increased fine particulate air pollution (PM2.5) with acute and chronic mortality. The effect of improvements in particle exposure is less clear. Objectives: Earlier analysis of the Harvard Six Cities adult cohort study showed an association between long-term ambient PM2.5 and mortality between enrollment in the mid-1970's and follow-up until 1990. We extended mortality follow-up for eight years in a period of reduced air pollution concentrations. Methods: Annual city-specific PM2.5 concentrations were measured between 1979-1988, and estimated for later years from publicly available data. Exposure was defined as (1) city-specific mean PM2.5 during the two follow-up periods, (2) mean PM2.5 in the first period and change between these periods, (3) overall mean PM2.5 across the entire follow-up, and (4) year-specific mean PM2.5. Mortality rate ratios were estimated with Cox proportional hazards regression controlling for individual risk factors. Measurements and Main Results: We found an increase in overall mortality associated with each 10 \{micro}g/m3 increase in PM2.5 modeled either as the overall mean (RR=1.16, 95\%CI=1.07-1.26) or as exposure in the year of death (RR=1.14, 95\%CI=1.06-1.22). PM2.5 exposure was associated with lung cancer (RR=1.27, 95\%CI=0.96-1.69) and cardiovascular deaths (RR=1.28, 95\%CI=1.13-1.44). Improved overall mortality was associated with decreased mean PM2.5 (10 \{micro}g/m3) between periods (RR=0.73, 95\% CI=0.57-0.95). Conclusion: Total, cardiovascular, and lung cancer mortality were each positively associated with ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Reduced PM2.5 concentrations were associated with reduced mortality risk.},
	urldate = {2010-09-07},
	journal = {Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med.},
	author = {Laden, Francine and Schwartz, Joel and Speizer, Frank E and Dockery, Douglas W},
	month = jan,
	year = {2006},
	pages = {200503--443OC},
	file = {HighWire Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/DCWBBWF7/200503-443OCv1.html:text/html}
}

@article{tonne_air_2008,
	title = {Air pollution and mortality benefits of the {London} {Congestion} {Charge}: spatial and socioeconomic inequalities},
	volume = {65},
	shorttitle = {Air pollution and mortality benefits of the {London} {Congestion} {Charge}},
	url = {http://oem.bmj.com/content/65/9/620.abstract},
	doi = {10.1136/oem.2007.036533},
	abstract = {Objectives: To alleviate traffic congestion in Central London, the Mayor introduced the Congestion Charging Scheme (CCS) in February 2003. We modelled the impact of the CCS on levels of traffic pollutants, life expectancy and socioeconomic inequalities.Methods: Annual average NO2 and PM10 were modelled using an emission-dispersion model. We assumed the meteorology and vehicle fleet remained constant during the pre- and post-CCS periods to isolate changes due to traffic flow. Air pollution concentrations were linked to small area socioeconomic, population and mortality data. Associated changes in life expectancy were predicted using life table analysis and exposure-response coefficients from the literature.Results: Before the introduction of the CCS, annual average NO2 was 39.9 μg/m3 and PM10 was 26.2 μg/m3 across Greater London. Concentrations were 54.7 μg/m3 for NO2 and 30.3 μg/m3 for PM10 among census wards within or adjacent to the charging zone. Absolute and relative reductions in concentrations following the introduction of the CCS were greater among charging zone wards compared to remaining wards. Predicted benefits in the charging zone wards were 183 years of life per 100 000 population compared to 18 years among the remaining wards. In London overall, 1888 years of life were gained. More deprived areas had higher air pollution concentrations; these areas also experienced greater air pollution reductions and mortality benefits compared to the least deprived areas.Conclusions: The CCS, a localised scheme targeting traffic congestion, appears to have modest benefit on air pollution levels and associated life expectancy. Greater reductions in air pollution in more deprived areas are likely to make a small contribution to reducing socioeconomic inequalities in air pollution impacts.},
	number = {9},
	urldate = {2010-09-13},
	journal = {Occupational and Environmental Medicine},
	author = {Tonne, C and Beevers, S and Armstrong, B and Kelly, F and Wilkinson, P},
	year = {2008},
	pages = {620 --627},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/UVWP3AU8/620.html:text/html}
}

@article{angrist_identification_1996,
	title = {Identification of {Causal} {Effects} {Using} {Instrumental} {Variables}},
	volume = {91},
	number = {434},
	journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Angrist, J. D. and Imbens, G. W. and Rubin, D. B.},
	year = {1996},
	pages = {444--455}
}

@article{tchetgen_causal_2012,
	title = {On causal inference in the presence of interference},
	volume = {21},
	issn = {0962-2802, 1477-0334},
	url = {http://smm.sagepub.com/content/21/1/55},
	doi = {10.1177/0962280210386779},
	abstract = {Interference is said to be present when the exposure or treatment received by one individual may affect the outcomes of other individuals. Such interference can arise in settings in which the outcomes of the various individuals come about through social interactions. When interference is present, causal inference is rendered considerably more complex, and the literature on causal inference in the presence of interference has just recently begun to develop. In this article we summarise some of the concepts and results from the existing literature and extend that literature in considering new results for finite sample inference, new inverse probability weighting estimators in the presence of interference and new causal estimands of interest.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2012-11-19},
	journal = {Statistical Methods in Medical Research},
	author = {Tchetgen, Eric J. Tchetgen and VanderWeele, Tyler J.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {causal inference, interference, spillover effects, SUTVA, two-stage randomisation},
	pages = {55--75},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/6KMJN7WA/55.html:text/html}
}

@article{samet_clean_2011,
	title = {The {Clean} {Air} {Act} and {Health} — {A} {Clearer} {View} from 2011},
	volume = {365},
	issn = {0028-4793},
	url = {http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1103332},
	doi = {10.1056/NEJMp1103332},
	abstract = {From my office, I have views of downtown Los Angeles and the San Gabriel Mountains. Air pollution infrequently obscures these views, and only rarely are my eyes and throat irritated by smog when I'm outdoors. The Los Angeles air of today is far better than that of the mid-20th century, when severe oxidant pollution, initially of unknown origins, threatened the health and welfare of the city's residents. Severe smog was a common occurrence. Today, throughout the United States, air quality has improved greatly, and the last century's severe, life-threatening episodes of air pollution, such as one that caused about 20 . . .},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2012-11-13},
	journal = {New England Journal of Medicine},
	author = {Samet, Jonathan M.},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {198--201},
	file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/EKSNTZNV/Samet - 2011 - The Clean Air Act and Health — A Clearer View from.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/RKMGB9P6/NEJMp1103332.html:text/html}
}

@phdthesis{zigler_bayesian_2010,
	address = {Los Angeles, CA},
	title = {Bayesian strategies for posttreatment variable adjustment using principal stratification: {{A}}pplication to treatment noncompliance and principal surrogate endpoints},
	school = {University of California, Los Angeles},
	author = {Zigler, Corwin M.},
	year = {2010}
}

@article{peng_coarse_2008,
	title = {Coarse {Particulate} {Matter} {Air} {Pollution} and {Hospital} {Admissions} for {Cardiovascular} and {Respiratory} {Diseases} {Among} {Medicare} {Patients}},
	volume = {299},
	url = {http://jama.ama-assn.org/content/299/18/2172.abstract},
	doi = {10.1001/jama.299.18.2172},
	abstract = {Context Health risks of fine particulate matter of 2.5 μm or less in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) have been studied extensively over the last decade. Evidence concerning the health risks of the coarse fraction of greater than 2.5 μm and 10 μm or less in aerodynamic diameter (PM10-2.5) is limited.Objective To estimate risk of hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases associated with PM10-2.5 exposure, controlling for PM2.5.Design, Setting, and Participants Using a database assembled for 108 US counties with daily cardiovascular and respiratory disease admission rates, temperature and dew-point temperature, and PM10-2.5 and PM2.5 concentrations were calculated with monitoring data as an exposure surrogate from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2005. Admission rates were constructed from the Medicare National Claims History Files, for a study population of approximately 12 million Medicare enrollees living on average 9 miles (14.4 km) from collocated pairs of PM10 and PM2.5 monitors.Main Outcome Measures Daily counts of county-wide emergency hospital admissions for primary diagnoses of cardiovascular or respiratory disease.Results There were 3.7 million cardiovascular disease and 1.4 million respiratory disease admissions. A 10-μg/m3 increase in PM10-2.5 was associated with a 0.36\% (95\% posterior interval [PI], 0.05\% to 0.68\%) increase in cardiovascular disease admissions on the same day. However, when adjusted for PM2.5, the association was no longer statistically significant (0.25\%; 95\% PI, −0.11\% to 0.60\%). A 10-μg/m3 increase in PM10-2.5 was associated with a nonstatistically significant unadjusted 0.33\% (95\% PI, −0.21\% to 0.86\%) increase in respiratory disease admissions and with a 0.26\% (95\% PI, −0.32\% to 0.84\%) increase in respiratory disease admissions when adjusted for PM2.5. The unadjusted associations of PM2.5 with cardiovascular and respiratory disease admissions were 0.71\% (95\% PI, 0.45\%-0.96\%) for same-day exposure and 0.44\% (95\% PI, 0.06\% to 0.82\%) for exposure 2 days before hospital admission.Conclusion After adjustment for PM2.5, there were no statistically significant associations between coarse particulates and hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.},
	number = {18},
	urldate = {2011-08-15},
	journal = {JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association},
	author = {Peng, Roger D. and Chang, Howard H. and Bell, Michelle L. and McDermott, Aidan and Zeger, Scott L. and Samet, Jonathan M. and Dominici, Francesca},
	month = may,
	year = {2008},
	pmcid = {PMC3169813},
	pages = {2172 --2179},
	file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/T9KTS6G9/Peng et al. - 2008 - Coarse Particulate Matter Air Pollution and Hospit.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/X39MR3IC/2172.html:text/html}
}

@article{cochran_analysis_1957,
	title = {Analysis of covariance: {Its} nature and uses},
	volume = {13},
	issn = {0006341X},
	shorttitle = {Analysis of {Covariance}},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2527916},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2008-09-11},
	journal = {Biometrics},
	author = {Cochran, William G.},
	month = sep,
	year = {1957},
	note = {ArticleType: primary\_article / Issue Title: Special Issue on the Analysis of Covariance / Full publication date: Sep., 1957 / Copyright © 1957 International Biometric Society},
	pages = {261--281}
}

@article{dominici_protecting_2010,
	title = {Protecting {Human} {Health} from {Air} {Pollution}: {{S}}hifting from a single-pollutant to a multipollutant approach},
	volume = {21},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Epidemiology},
	author = {Dominici, Francesca and Peng, Roger and Barr, Christopher and Bell, Michelle},
	month = mar,
	year = {2010},
	pages = {187--194}
}

@article{vanderweele_simple_2008,
	title = {Simple relations between principal stratification and direct and indirect effects},
	volume = {78},
	issn = {0167-7152},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/science/article/B6V1D-4SMDYW8-1/2/3d86ad3b9bac1e8189d2eee197e9edf9},
	doi = {10.1016/j.spl.2008.05.029},
	abstract = {The concepts of principal strata direct and indirect effects are compared with and contrasted to definitions of direct and indirect effects which make reference to interventions on intermediate variables. Certain simple relations hold for direct effects but not indirect effects.},
	number = {17},
	urldate = {2010-09-28},
	journal = {Statistics \& Probability Letters},
	author = {VanderWeele, Tyler J.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2008},
	pages = {2957--2962},
	file = {ScienceDirect Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/K67UD2M5/science.html:text/html}
}

@article{currie_traffic_2011,
	title = {Traffic {Congestion} and {Infant} {Health}: {Evidence} from {E}-{ZPass}},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {1945-7782, 1945-7790},
	shorttitle = {Traffic {Congestion} and {Infant} {Health}},
	url = {http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/app.3.1.65},
	doi = {10.1257/app.3.1.65},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2013-08-15},
	journal = {American Economic Journal: Applied Economics},
	author = {Currie, Janet and Walker, Reed},
	month = jan,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {65--90},
	file = {AEJ\: Applied (3,1) p. 65 - Traffic Congestion and Infant Health\: Evidence from E-ZPass:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/QGCZ2ZZ4/articles.html:text/html}
}

@article{banerjee_gaussian_2008,
	title = {Gaussian predictive process models for large spatial data sets},
	volume = {70},
	issn = {13697412},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2008.00663.x/full},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9868.2008.00663.x},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2010-12-02},
	journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)},
	author = {Banerjee, Sudipto and Gelfand, Alan E. and Finley, Andrew O. and Sang, Huiyan},
	month = sep,
	year = {2008},
	pages = {825--848},
	file = {Gaussian predictive process models for large spatial data sets - Banerjee - 2008 - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society\: Series B (Statistical Methodology) - Wiley Online Library:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/C3BXSBPM/full.html:text/html}
}

@article{rosenbaum_central_1983,
	title = {The {Central} {Role} of the {Propensity} {Score} in {Observational} {Studies} for {Causal} {Effects}},
	volume = {70},
	issn = {00063444},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2335942},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2008-06-25},
	journal = {Biometrika},
	author = {Rosenbaum, Paul R. and Rubin, Donald B.},
	month = apr,
	year = {1983},
	pages = {41--55}
}

@techreport{u.s._epa_benefits_2010,
	address = {Research Triangel Park, NC},
	type = {Revised {Draft} {Report}},
	title = {The {Benefits} and {Costs} of the {Clean} {Air} {Act}: 1990 to 2020},
	url = {http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/prospective2.html},
	urldate = {2011-06-02},
	institution = {US EPA Office of Air and Radiation},
	author = {{U.S. EPA}},
	year = {2010},
	file = {Second Prospective Study - 1990 to 2020 | Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act | US EPA:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/TW8GRENF/prospective2.html:text/html}
}

@article{rubin_discussion_1980,
	title = {Discussion of randomization analysis of experimental data: the {Fisher} randomization test by {D}. {Basu}},
	volume = {75},
	shorttitle = {Discussion of randomization analysis of experimental data},
	number = {371},
	journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Rubin, D. B},
	year = {1980},
	pages = {591--593}
}

@article{imai_identification_2010,
	title = {Identification, {Inference} and {Sensitivity} {Analysis} for {Causal} {Mediation} {Effects}},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {0883-4237},
	url = {http://projecteuclid.org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/euclid.ss/1280841733},
	doi = {10.1214/10-STS321},
	abstract = {Causal mediation analysis is routinely conducted by applied researchers in a variety of disciplines. The goal of such an analysis is to investigate alternative causal mechanisms by examining the roles of intermediate variables that lie in the causal paths between the treatment and outcome variables. In this paper we first prove that under a particular version of sequential ignorability assumption, the average causal mediation effect (ACME) is nonparametrically identified. We compare our identification assumption with those proposed in the literature. Some practical implications of our identification result are also discussed. In particular, the popular estimator based on the linear structural equation model (LSEM) can be interpreted as an ACME estimator once additional parametric assumptions are made. We show that these assumptions can easily be relaxed within and outside of the LSEM framework and propose simple nonparametric estimation strategies. Second, and perhaps most importantly, we propose a new sensitivity analysis that can be easily implemented by applied researchers within the LSEM framework. Like the existing identifying assumptions, the proposed sequential ignorability assumption may be too strong in many applied settings. Thus, sensitivity analysis is essential in order to examine the robustness of empirical findings to the possible existence of an unmeasured confounder. Finally, we apply the proposed methods to a randomized experiment from political psychology. We also make easy-to-use software available to implement the proposed methods.},
	language = {EN},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2010-12-17},
	journal = {Statistical Science},
	author = {Imai, Kosuke},
	month = feb,
	year = {2010},
	pages = {51--71}
}

@article{peng_emergency_2009,
	title = {Emergency {Admissions} for {Cardiovascular} and {Respiratory} {Diseases} and the {Chemical} {Composition} of {Fine} {Particle} {Air} {Pollution}},
	volume = {117},
	issn = {0091-6765},
	url = {http://ehp03.niehs.nih.gov/article/fetchArticle.action?articleURI=info%3Adoi%2F10.1289%2Fehp.0800185},
	doi = {10.1289/ehp.0800185},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2011-08-15},
	journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
	author = {Peng, Roger D. and Bell, Michelle L. and Geyh, Alison S. and McDermott, Aidan and Zeger, Scott L. and Samet, Jonathan M. and Dominici, Francesca},
	month = jun,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {957--963},
	file = {Environmental Health Perspectives\: Emergency Admissions for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Diseases and the Chemical Composition of Fine Particle Air Pollution:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/QCKNG7FF/fetchArticle.html:text/html}
}

@book{institute_of_medicine_improving_2008,
	address = {Washington, DC},
	title = {Improving the {Presumptive} {Disability} {Decision}-making {Process} for {Veterans}},
	url = {http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=5SdUpiQx46AC&oi=fnd&pg=PR1&dq=Improving+the+Presumptive+Disability+Decision-Making+Process+for+Veterans&ots=r4A2yr86r5&sig=7d6deO-UpklTmL-SN7ZZFbbS4HE},
	urldate = {2012-12-14},
	publisher = {National Academy Press},
	author = {{Institute of Medicine}},
	editor = {Samet, JM and Bodurow, CC},
	year = {2008},
	file = {[PDF] from veteranslawlibrary.com:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/SRIU77B9/Samet and Bodurow - 2008 - Improving the Presumptive Disability Decision-maki.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/QKT8GN4H/books.html:text/html}
}

@article{stuart_matching_2010,
	title = {Matching methods for causal inference: {A} review and a look forward},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {0883-4237},
	shorttitle = {Matching methods for causal inference},
	doi = {10.1214/09-STS313},
	abstract = {When estimating causal effects using observational data, it is desirable to replicate a randomized experiment as closely as possible by obtaining treated and control groups with similar covariate distributions. This goal can often be achieved by choosing well-matched samples of the original treated and control groups, thereby reducing bias due to the covariates. Since the 1970â€™s, work on matching methods has examined how to best choose treated and control subjects for comparison. Matching methods are gaining popularity in fields such as economics, epidemiology, medicine, and political science. However, until now the literature and related advice has been scattered across disciplines. Researchers who are interested in using matching methods–or developing methods related to matching–do not have a single place to turn to learn about past and current research. This paper provides a structure for thinking about matching methods and guidance on their use, coalescing the existing research (both old and new) and providing a summary of where the literature on matching methods is now and where it should be headed.},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics},
	author = {Stuart, Elizabeth A.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2010},
	pmid = {20871802 PMCID: 2943670},
	pages = {1--21}
}

@book{banerjee_hierarchical_2004,
	title = {Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data},
	isbn = {158488410X},
	publisher = {Chapman \& Hall},
	author = {Banerjee, S. and Carlin, B. P and Gelfand, A. E},
	year = {2004}
}

@article{moore_ambient_2010,
	title = {Ambient {Ozone} {Concentrations} and {Cardiac} {Mortality} in {Southern} {California} 1983–2000: {Application} of a {New} {Marginal} {Structural} {Model} {Approach}},
	volume = {171},
	shorttitle = {Ambient {Ozone} {Concentrations} and {Cardiac} {Mortality} in {Southern} {California} 1983–2000},
	url = {http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/171/11/1233.abstract},
	doi = {10.1093/aje/kwq064},
	abstract = {The authors evaluated the association between ambient ozone levels and cardiac mortality in California's South Coast Air Basin during the period 1983–2000 and compared inferences from several types of marginal structural model (MSM) estimators. The authors undertook an ecologic study during the high-ozone seasons among persons over age 55 years. In contrast to conditional regression analysis and MSMs based on G-computation and simple inverse probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW), an MSM that protected against violation of the experimental treatment assignment (ETA) assumption and considered only those areas that could have experienced both high and low ozone concentrations during 1983–2000 found no consistent evidence that reductions in quarterly 1-hour maximum ozone concentrations from levels above any of the regulatory standards to levels below those standards led to decreases in cardiac mortality; however, it did find evidence of decreases related to a decrease in 8-hour maximum concentrations. The G-computation estimator and simple IPTW estimators were biased because of serious violation of the ETA assumption. These analyses highlight the importance of nonviolation of the ETA assumption for valid inference and the failure of conditional regression to provide marginal estimates in the presence of interactions. Noncausal models also consistently inferred larger associations, which may have been due to bias violation of the ETA assumption on which these models rely.},
	number = {11},
	urldate = {2011-08-08},
	journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
	author = {Moore, Kelly and Neugebauer, Romain and Lurmann, Frederick and Hall, Jane and Brajer, Victor and Alcorn, Sianna and Tager, Ira},
	month = jun,
	year = {2010},
	pages = {1233 --1243},
	file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/U2X23X5G/Moore et al. - 2010 - Ambient Ozone Concentrations and Cardiac Mortality.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/2HCB3X4Z/1233.html:text/html}
}

@misc{national_research_council_committee_on_changes_in_new_source_review_programs_for_stationary_sources_of_air_pollution_new_2006,
	title = {New {Source} {Review} for {Stationary} {Sources} of {Air} {Pollution}},
	publisher = {The National Academies Press},
	author = {{National Research Council Committee on Changes in New Source Review Programs for Stationary Sources of Air Pollution}},
	year = {2006}
}

@misc{u.s._federal_register_volume_1991,
	title = {Volume 56, {Number} 51},
	author = {{U.S. Federal Register}},
	month = mar,
	year = {1991}
}

@article{rich_association_2012,
	title = {Association between changes in air pollution levels during the {Beijing} {Olympics} and biomarkers of inflammation and thrombosis in healthy young adults},
	volume = {307},
	url = {http://archsurg.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=1157490},
	number = {19},
	urldate = {2013-07-15},
	journal = {JAMA},
	author = {Rich, David Q. and Kipen, Howard M. and Huang, Wei and Wang, Guangfa and Wang, Yuedan and Zhu, Ping and Ohman-Strickland, Pamela and Hu, Min and Philipp, Claire and Diehl, Scott R.},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {2068--2078},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/JSWTFUAB/article.html:text/html}
}

@article{janes_trends_2007,
	title = {Trends in air pollution and mortality: an approach to the assessment of unmeasured confounding},
	volume = {18},
	shorttitle = {Trends in air pollution and mortality},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Epidemiology},
	author = {Janes, H. and Dominici, F. and Zeger, S. L},
	year = {2007},
	pages = {416}
}

@article{pope_iii_fine-particulate_2009,
	title = {Fine-particulate air pollution and life expectancy in the {United} {States}},
	volume = {360},
	number = {4},
	journal = {New England Journal of Medicine},
	author = {Pope III, C. A and Ezzati, M. and Dockery, D. W},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {376--386}
}

@article{baron_moderator-mediator_1986,
	title = {The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: {Conceptual}, strategic, and statistical considerations},
	volume = {51},
	shorttitle = {The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research},
	number = {6},
	journal = {Journal of personality and social psychology},
	author = {Baron, R. M and Kenny, D. A},
	year = {1986},
	pages = {1173--1182}
}

@book{daniels_missing_2008,
	title = {Missing {Data} in {Longitudinal} {Studies}},
	isbn = {1584886099, 9781584886099},
	publisher = {CRC Press},
	author = {Daniels, Michael J. and Hogan, Joseph W.},
	year = {2008}
}

@article{prentice_surrogate_1989,
	title = {Surrogate endpoints in clinical trials: {Definition} and operational criteria},
	volume = {8},
	shorttitle = {Surrogate endpoints in clinical trials},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780080407},
	doi = {10.1002/sim.4780080407},
	abstract = {I discuss the idea of using surrogate endpoints in the context of clinical trials to compare two or more treatments or interventions in respect to some lsquotruersquo endpoint, typically a disease occurrence. In order that treatment comparison based on a surrogate response variable have a meaningful implication for the corresponding true endpoint treatment comparison, a rather restrictive criterion is proposed for use of the adjective lsquosurrogatersquo. Specifically, I propose that a surrogate for a true endpoint yield a valid test of the null hypothesis of no association between treatment and the true response. This criterion essentially requires the surrogate variable to lsquocapturersquo any relationship between the treatment and the true endpoint, a notion that can be operationalized by requiring the true endpoint rate at any follow-up time to be independent of treatment, given the preceding history of the surrogate variable. I then discuss this operational criterion in the examples of the accompanying papers1-3 and in the setting of trials aimed at the primary and secondary prevention of cancer.},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2008-09-10},
	journal = {Statistics in Medicine},
	author = {Prentice, Ross L.},
	year = {1989},
	pages = {431--440}
}

@article{rosenbaum_interference_2007,
	title = {Interference {Between} {Units} in {Randomized} {Experiments}},
	volume = {102},
	issn = {0162-1459},
	url = {http://pubs.amstat.org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/doi/abs/10.1198/016214506000001112},
	doi = {10.1198/016214506000001112},
	number = {477},
	urldate = {2011-02-25},
	journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Rosenbaum, Paul R},
	month = mar,
	year = {2007},
	pages = {191--200},
	file = {American Statistical Association - Journal of the American Statistical Association - 102(477)\:191:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/VWAEXE37/016214506000001112.html:text/html}
}

@article{rubin_practical_1991,
	title = {Practical {Implications} of {Modes} of {Statistical} {Inference} for {Causal} {Effects} and the {Critical} {Role} of the {Assignment} {Mechanism}},
	volume = {47},
	copyright = {Copyright © 1991 International Biometric Society},
	issn = {0006-341X},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2532381},
	doi = {10.2307/2532381},
	abstract = {Causal inference in an important topic and one that is now attracting serious attention of statisticians. Although there exist recent discussions concerning the general definition of causal effects and a substantial literature on specific techniques for the analysis of data in randomized and nonrandomized studies, there has been relatively little discussion of modes of statistical inference for causal effects. This presentation briefly describes and contrasts four basic modes of statistical inference for causal effects, emphasizes the common underlying causal framework with a posited assignment mechanism, and describes practical implications in the context of an example involving the effects of switching from a name-brand to a generic drug. A fundamental conclusion is that in such nonrandomized studies, sensitivity of inference to the assignment mechanism is the dominant issue, and it cannot be avoided by changing modes of inference, for instance, by changing from randomization-based to Bayesian methods.},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2012-12-12},
	journal = {Biometrics},
	author = {Rubin, Donald B.},
	month = dec,
	year = {1991},
	note = {ArticleType: research-article / Full publication date: Dec., 1991 / Copyright © 1991 International Biometric Society},
	pages = {1213--1234},
	file = {JSTOR Full Text PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/ZGNQQI97/Rubin - 1991 - Practical Implications of Modes of Statistical Inf.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{jin_principal_2008,
	title = {Principal stratification for causal inference with extended partial compliance},
	volume = {103},
	shorttitle = {Principal stratification for causal inference with extended partial compliance},
	number = {481},
	journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Jin, H. and Rubin, D. B.},
	year = {2008},
	pages = {101--111}
}

@article{zeger_mortality_2008,
	title = {Mortality in the {Medicare} {Population} and {Chronic} {Exposure} to {Fine} {Particulate} {Air} {Pollution} in {Urban} {Centers} {(2000-–2005)}},
	volume = {116},
	issn = {0091-6765},
	doi = {10.1289/ehp.11449},
	number = {12},
	journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
	author = {Zeger, Scott L. and Dominici, Francesca and McDermott, Aidan and Samet, Jonathan M.},
	year = {2008},
	pmid = {19079710},
	pmcid = {2599753},
	pages = {1614--1619}
}

@article{hedley_cardiorespiratory_2002,
	title = {Cardiorespiratory and all-cause mortality after restrictions on sulphur content of fuel in {Hong} {Kong}: an intervention study},
	volume = {360},
	issn = {0140-6736},
	shorttitle = {Cardiorespiratory and all-cause mortality after restrictions on sulphur content of fuel in {Hong} {Kong}},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/science/article/B6T1B-478RSTH-B/2/f1041ac7f68d44b1507a2f9bd82f9953},
	doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(02)11612-6},
	abstract = {SummaryBackground
In July, 1990, a restriction was introduced over one weekend that required all power plants and road vehicles in Hong Kong to use fuel oil with a sulphur content of not more than 0·5\% by weight. This intervention led to an immediate fall in ambient sulphur dioxide (S02). We assessed the effect of this intervention on mortality over the next 5 years.Methods
Changes in trends in deaths were estimated by a Poisson regression model of deaths each month between 1985 and 1995. Changes in seasonal deaths immediately after the intervention were measured by the increase in deaths from warm to cool season. We also estimated the annual proportional change in number of deaths before and after the intervention. We used age-specific death rates to estimate person-years of life gaine.dFindings
In the first 12 months after introduction of the restriction, a substantial reduction in seasonal deaths was noted, followed by a peak in the cool-season death rate between 13 and 24 months, returning to the expected pattern during years 3-5. Compared with predictions, the intervention led to a significant decline in the average annual trend in deaths from all causes (2·1\%; p=0·001), respiratory (3·9\%; p=0·0014) and cardiovascular (2·0\%; p=0·0214) diseases, but not from other causes. The average gain in life expectancy per year of exposure to the lower pollutant concentration was 20 days (females) to 41 days (males).Interpretation
Pollution resulting from sulphur-rich fuels has an effect on death rates, especially respiratory and cardiovascular deaths. The outcome of the Hong Kong intervention provides direct evidence that control of this pollution has immediate and long-term health benefits.},
	number = {9346},
	urldate = {2010-12-17},
	journal = {The Lancet},
	author = {Hedley, Anthony Johnson and Wong, Chit-Ming and Thach, Thuan Quoc and Ma, Stefan and Lam, Tai-Hing and Anderson, Hugh Ross},
	month = nov,
	year = {2002},
	pages = {1646--1652},
	file = {ScienceDirect Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/RHKIPIMF/science.html:text/html}
}

@article{rubin_direct_2004,
	title = {Direct and {Indirect} {Causal} {Effects} via {Potential} {Outcomes}},
	volume = {31},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Scandinavian Journal of Statistics},
	author = {Rubin, D. B.},
	year = {2004},
	pages = {161--170}
}

@misc{u.s._epa_multi-pollutant_2008,
	title = {The {Multi}-{Pollutant} {Report}: {Technical} {Concepts} and {Examples}},
	publisher = {United States Environmental Protection Agency},
	author = {{U.S. EPA}},
	year = {2008}
}

@article{greenstone_quasi-experimental_2009,
	title = {Quasi-experimental and experimental approaches to environmental economics},
	volume = {57},
	issn = {0095-0696},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WJ6-4TN0KS5-1/2/5b124b364bf72c9a71cc9073618df179},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jeem.2008.02.004},
	abstract = {This paper argues that an increased application of quasi-experimental and experimental techniques will improve understanding about core environmental economics questions. This argument is supported by a review of the limitations of associational evidence in assessing causal hypotheses. The paper also discusses the benefits of experiments and quasi-experiments, outlines some quasi-experimental methods, and highlights threats to their validity. It then illustrates the quasi-experimental method by assessing the validity of a quasi-experiment that aims to estimate the impact of the Endangered Species Act on property markets in North Carolina. The paper's larger argument is that greater application of experimental and quasi-experimental techniques can identify efficient policies that increase social welfare.},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2010-11-03},
	journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
	author = {Greenstone, Michael and Gayer, Ted},
	month = jan,
	year = {2009},
	keywords = {Endangered species, Natural experiments, Property markets, Quasi-experiments, Randomized experiments},
	pages = {21--44},
	file = {ScienceDirect Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/3HZQUIDW/science.html:text/html}
}

@article{rubin_statistical_1986,
	title = {Statistical matching using file concatenation with adjusted weights and multiple imputations},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {07350015},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1391390},
	doi = {10.2307/1391390},
	abstract = {Statistically matched files are created in an attempt to solve the practical problem that exists when no single file has the full set of variables needed for drawing important inferences. Previous methods of file matching are reviewed, and the method of file concatenation with adjusted weights and multiple imputations is described and illustrated on an artificial example. A major benefit of this approach is the ability to display sensitivity of inference to untestable assumptions being made when creating the matched file.},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2009-08-24},
	journal = {Journal of Business \& Economic Statistics},
	author = {Rubin, Donald B.},
	month = jan,
	year = {1986},
	note = {ArticleType: primary\_article / Full publication date: Jan., 1986 / Copyright © 1986 American Statistical Association},
	pages = {87--94}
}

@article{janes_quantifying_2010,
	title = {On quantifying the magnitude of confounding},
	volume = {11},
	url = {http://biostatistics.oxfordjournals.org/content/11/3/572.abstract},
	doi = {10.1093/biostatistics/kxq007},
	abstract = {When estimating the association between an exposure and outcome, a simple approach to quantifying the amount of confounding by a factor, Z, is to compare estimates of the exposure–outcome association with and without adjustment for Z. This approach is widely believed to be problematic due to the nonlinearity of some exposure-effect measures. When the expected value of the outcome is modeled as a nonlinear function of the exposure, the adjusted and unadjusted exposure effects can differ even in the absence of confounding (Greenland , Robins, and Pearl, 1999); we call this the nonlinearity effect. In this paper, we propose a corrected measure of confounding that does not include the nonlinearity effect. The performances of the simple and corrected estimates of confounding are assessed in simulations and illustrated using a study of risk factors for low birth–weight infants. We conclude that the simple estimate of confounding is adequate or even preferred in settings where the nonlinearity effect is very small. In settings with a sizable nonlinearity effect, the corrected estimate of confounding has improved performance.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2011-08-06},
	journal = {Biostatistics},
	author = {Janes, Holly and Dominici, Francesca and Zeger, Scott},
	month = jul,
	year = {2010},
	pmcid = {PMC2883302},
	pages = {572 --582}
}

@article{greven_approach_2011,
	title = {An {Approach} to the {Estimation} of {Chronic} {Air} {Pollution} {Effects} {Using} {Spatio}-{Temporal} {Information}},
	volume = {106},
	issn = {0162-1459},
	url = {http://pubs.amstat.org/doi/abs/10.1198/jasa.2011.ap09392},
	doi = {10.1198/jasa.2011.ap09392},
	number = {494},
	urldate = {2011-08-06},
	journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Greven, Sonja and Dominici, Francesca and Zeger, Scott},
	month = jun,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {396--406},
	file = {American Statistical Association - Journal of the American Statistical Association - 106(494)\:396:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/9RRMWXTK/jasa.2011.html:text/html}
}

@misc{board_of_scientific_counselors_mid-cycle_2008,
	title = {Mid-{Cycle} {Review} of the {Office} of {Research} and {Dvelopment}'s {Air} {Research} {Program} at the {U}.{S}. {Environmental} {Protection} {Agency}},
	publisher = {U.S. Environmental Protection Agency},
	author = {{Board of Scientific Counselors}},
	year = {2008}
}

@article{shin_measuring_2009,
	title = {Measuring public health accountability of air quality management},
	volume = {2},
	issn = {1873-9318},
	url = {http://www.springerlink.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/content/123553l233466m52/},
	doi = {10.1007/s11869-009-0029-z},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2011-02-14},
	journal = {Air Quality, Atmosphere \& Health},
	author = {Shin, Hwashin Hyun and Burnett, Richard T. and Stieb, David M. and Jessiman, Barry},
	month = mar,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {11--20},
	file = {SpringerLink - Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, Volume 2, Number 1:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/B48FWD3A/123553l233466m52.html:text/html}
}

@article{samet_fine_2000,
	title = {Fine particulate air pollution and mortality in 20 {US} cities, 1987–1994},
	volume = {343},
	number = {24},
	journal = {New England journal of medicine},
	author = {Samet, J. M and Dominici, F. and Curriero, F. C and Coursac, I. and Zeger, S. L},
	year = {2000},
	pages = {1742--1749},
	file = {Google Scholar Linked Page:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/F6JRHE5C/NEJM200012143432401.html:text/html}
}

@book{wackernagel_multivariate_2003,
	title = {Multivariate geostatistics: an introduction with applications},
	isbn = {9783540441427},
	shorttitle = {Multivariate geostatistics},
	publisher = {Springer},
	author = {Wackernagel, Hans},
	year = {2003}
}

@article{daniels_estimating_2000,
	title = {Estimating particulate matter-mortality dose-response curves and threshold levels: an analysis of daily time-series for the 20 largest {US} cities},
	volume = {152},
	issn = {0002-9262},
	shorttitle = {Estimating particulate matter-mortality dose-response curves and threshold levels},
	url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10981451},
	abstract = {Numerous studies have shown a positive association between daily mortality and particulate air pollution, even at concentrations below regulatory limits. These findings have motivated interest in the shape of the exposure-response relation. The authors have developed flexible modeling strategies for time-series data that include spline and threshold exposure-response models; they apply these models to daily time-series data for the 20 largest US cities for 1987-1994, using the concentration of particulate matter {\textless}10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) as the exposure measure. The spline model showed a linear relation without indication of threshold for PM10 and relative risk of death for all causes and cardiorespiratory causes; by contrast, for other causes, the risk did not increase until approximately 50 microg/m3 PM10. For all-cause mortality, a linear model without threshold was preferred to the threshold model and to the spline model, using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). The findings were similar for cardiovascular and respiratory deaths combined. By contrast, for causes other than cardiovascular and respiratory, a threshold model was more competitive with a threshold value estimated at 65 microg/m3. These findings indicate that linear models without a threshold are appropriate for assessing the effect of particulate air pollution on daily mortality even at current levels.},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2011-08-15},
	journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
	author = {Daniels, M J and Dominici, F and Samet, J M and Zeger, S L},
	month = sep,
	year = {2000},
	pmid = {10981451},
	keywords = {Air Pollutants, Dose-Response Relationship, Drug, Environmental Exposure, Humans, Models, Statistical, Mortality, Particle Size, Reference Values, Risk Assessment, Urban Population},
	pages = {397--406}
}

@article{dockery_association_1993,
	title = {An association between air pollution and mortality in six {US} cities},
	volume = {329},
	number = {24},
	journal = {New England journal of medicine},
	author = {Dockery, D. W and Pope III, C. A and Xu, X. and Spengler, J. D and Ware, J. H and Fay, M. E and Ferris, B. G and Speizer, F. E},
	year = {1993},
	pages = {1753--1759}
}

@article{imai_general_2010,
	title = {A general approach to causal mediation analysis.},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {1939-1463},
	url = {http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/2010-21388-001/},
	doi = {10.1037/a0020761},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2011-08-08},
	journal = {Psychological Methods},
	author = {Imai, Kosuke and Keele, Luke and Tingley, Dustin},
	year = {2010},
	pages = {309--334},
	file = {PsycNET - Display Record:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/MTWQJTAP/2010-21388-001.html:text/html}
}

@article{hernan_invited_2005,
	title = {Invited {Commentary}: {Hypothetical} {Interventions} to {Define} {Causal} {Effects}—{Afterthought} or {Prerequisite}?},
	volume = {162},
	issn = {0002-9262, 1476-6256},
	shorttitle = {Invited {Commentary}},
	url = {http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/162/7/618},
	doi = {10.1093/aje/kwi255},
	language = {en},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2013-01-25},
	journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
	author = {Hernan, Miguel A.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2005},
	pages = {618--620},
	file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/ZX8VMGJT/Hernán - 2005 - Invited Commentary Hypothetical Interventions to .pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/GNQX6T5U/618.html:text/html}
}

@article{roy_principal_2008,
	title = {Principal stratification with predictors of compliance for randomized trials with 2 active treatments},
	volume = {9},
	issn = {1465-4644},
	url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17681993},
	doi = {10.1093/biostatistics/kxm027},
	abstract = {In behavioral medicine trials, such as smoking cessation trials, 2 or more active treatments are often compared. Noncompliance by some subjects with their assigned treatment poses a challenge to the data analyst. The principal stratification framework permits inference about causal effects among subpopulations characterized by potential compliance. However, in the absence of prior information, there are 2 significant limitations: (1) the causal effects cannot be point identified for some strata and (2) individuals in the subpopulations (strata) cannot be identified. We propose to use additional information-compliance-predictive covariates-to help identify the causal effects and to help describe characteristics of the subpopulations. The probability of membership in each principal stratum is modeled as a function of these covariates. The model is constructed using marginal compliance models (which are identified) and a sensitivity parameter that captures the association between the 2 marginal distributions. We illustrate our methods in both a simulation study and an analysis of data from a smoking cessation trial.},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2009-09-04},
	journal = {Biostatistics},
	author = {Roy, Jason and Hogan, Joseph W and Marcus, Bess H},
	month = apr,
	year = {2008},
	pmid = {17681993},
	keywords = {Biometry, Causality, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Patient Compliance, Probability, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Regression Analysis, Sensitivity and Specificity, Smoking Cessation, Treatment Outcome},
	pages = {277--289}
}

@article{imai_toward_2008,
	title = {Toward a common framework for statistical analysis and development},
	volume = {17},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics},
	author = {Imai, K. and King, G. and Lau, O.},
	year = {2008},
	pages = {892--913},
	file = {Google Scholar Linked Page:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/J5R9NMDH/Imai et al. - 2008 - Toward a common framework for statistical analysis:}
}

@article{chay_clean_2003,
	title = {The {Clean} {Air} {Act} of 1970 and {Adult} {Mortality}},
	volume = {27},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Journal of Risk and Uncertainty},
	author = {Chay, Kenneth and Dobkin, Carlos and Greenstone, Michael},
	year = {2003},
	pages = {279--300}
}

@article{greenstone_did_2004,
	title = {Did the {Clean} {Air} {Act} cause the remarkable decline in sulfur dioxide concentrations?},
	volume = {47},
	issn = {0095-0696},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WJ6-4CDH8SK-2/2/c00b463d3e927d164f481f8c2bf08d1c},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jeem.2003.12.001},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2010-09-07},
	journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
	author = {Greenstone, Michael},
	month = may,
	year = {2004},
	keywords = {Air pollution, Benefits of environmental regulation, Clean Air Act, Sulfur Dioxide},
	pages = {585--611},
	file = {ScienceDirect Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/79UFC2N8/science.html:text/html}
}

@article{dominici_estimating_2006,
	title = {Estimating percentile-specific treatment effects in counterfactual models: a case-study of micronutrient supplementation, birth weight and infant mortality},
	volume = {55},
	shorttitle = {Estimating percentile-specific treatment effects in counterfactual models},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2006.00533.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9876.2006.00533.x},
	abstract = {Summary.�Clinical trials of micronutrient supplementation are aimed at reducing the risk of infant mortality by increasing birth weight. Because infant mortality is greatest among the low birth weight (LBW) infants (2500�g or under), an effective intervention increases the birth weight among the smallest babies. The paper defines population and counterfactual parameters for estimating the treatment effects on birth weight and on survival as functions of the percentiles of the birth weight distribution. We use a Bayesian approach with data augmentation to approximate the posterior distributions of the parameters, taking into account uncertainty that is associated with the imputation of the counterfactuals. This approach is particularly suitable for exploring the sensitivity of the results to unverifiable modelling assumptions and other prior beliefs. We estimate that the average causal effect of the treatment on birth weight is 72�g (95\% posterior regions 332013110�g) and that this causal effect is largest among the LBW infants. Posterior inferences about average causal effects of the treatment on birth weight are robust to modelling assumptions. However, inferences about causal effects for babies at the tails of the birth weight distribution can be highly sensitive to the unverifiable assumption about the correl-ation between the observed and the counterfactuals birth weights. Among the LBW infants who have a large causal effect of the treatment on birth weight, we estimate that a baby receiving the treatment has 5\% less chance of death than if the same baby had received the control. Among the LBW infants, we found weak evidence supporting an additional beneficial effect of the treatment on mortality independent of birth weight.},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2009-06-02},
	journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C},
	author = {Dominici, Francesca and Zeger, Scott L. and Parmigiani, Giovanni and Katz, Joanne and Christian, Parul},
	year = {2006},
	pages = {261--280}
}

@article{holland_statistics_1986,
	title = {Statistics and causal inference},
	volume = {81},
	issn = {01621459},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2289064},
	number = {396},
	urldate = {2008-09-10},
	journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Holland, Paul W.},
	month = dec,
	year = {1986},
	note = {Problems involving causal inference have dogged at the heels of statistics since its earliest days. Correlation does not imply causation, and yet causal conclusions drawn from a carefully designed experiment are often valid. What can a statistical model say about causation? This question is addressed by using a particular model for causal inference (Holland and Rubin 1983; Rubin 1974) to critique the discussions of other writers on causation and causal inference. These include selected philosophers, medical researchers, statisticians, econometricians, and proponents of causal modeling.},
	pages = {945--960}
}

@article{pope_iii_particulate_1995,
	title = {Particulate air pollution as a predictor of mortality in a prospective study of {US} adults},
	volume = {151},
	number = {3},
	journal = {American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine},
	author = {Pope III, C. A. and Thun, M. J and Namboodiri, M. M and Dockery, D. W and Evans, J. S and Speizer, F. E and Heath Jr, C. W},
	year = {1995},
	pages = {669}
}

@article{finley_spbayes:_2007,
	title = {{spBayes}: an {R} package for univariate and multivariate hierarchical point-referenced spatial models},
	volume = {19},
	shorttitle = {{spBayes}},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
	author = {Finley, A. O and Banerjee, S. and Carlin, B. P},
	year = {2007},
	pages = {1--24}
}

@article{heitjan_assessing_1994,
	title = {Assessing secular trends in blood pressure: {A} multiple-imputation approach},
	volume = {89},
	issn = {01621459},
	shorttitle = {Assessing {Secular} {Trends} in {Blood} {Pressure}},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2290900},
	doi = {10.2307/2290900},
	abstract = {The National Center for Health Statistics makes available data from three national health evaluation surveys that it has conducted since 1960: NHES I (1960-1962), NHANES I (1971-1975), and NHANES II (1976-1980). There has been considerable interest in using these data to assess secular trends in cardiovascular risk factors such as blood pressure (BP). Unfortunately, underlying trends in BP are confounded with trends in physician treatment of hypertension over the same period; in the early 1960s it was rare to treat hypertension, whereas by the late 1970s it had become quite common. Our approach to estimating the underlying trends is to take untreated BP to be the variable of interest and to consider it missing in those subjects who are under treatment. We then use a multiple-imputation scheme to construct estimates of trend parameters that adjust for the incompleteness of the original data. Because our imputations depend on certain model features that the data cannot address, we form estimates under different models and compare the results. Our analyses suggest that trend estimates are sensitive to the assumed model, and naive estimates that do not adjust for treatment trends appear to be overly optimistic.},
	number = {427},
	urldate = {2009-08-24},
	journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Heitjan, Daniel F. and Landis, J. Richard},
	month = sep,
	year = {1994},
	note = {ArticleType: primary\_article / Full publication date: Sep., 1994 / Copyright © 1994 American Statistical Association},
	pages = {750--759}
}

@article{rubin_for_2008,
	title = {For objective causal inference, design trumps analysis},
	volume = {2},
	issn = {1932-6157},
	url = {http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1223908042},
	doi = {10.1214/08-AOAS187},
	abstract = {For obtaining causal inferences that are objective, and therefore have the best chance of revealing scientific truths, carefully designed and executed randomized experiments are generally considered to be the gold standard. Observational studies, in contrast, are generally fraught with problems that compromise any claim for objectivity of the resulting causal inferences. The thesis here is that observational studies have to be carefully designed to approximate randomized experiments, in particular, without examining any final outcome data. Often a candidate data set will have to be rejected as inadequate because of lack of data on key covariates, or because of lack of overlap in the distributions of key covariates between treatment and control groups, often revealed by careful propensity score analyses. Sometimes the template for the approximating randomized experiment will have to be altered, and the use of principal stratification can be helpful in doing this. These issues are discussed and illustrated using the framework of potential outcomes to define causal effects, which greatly clarifies critical issues.},
	language = {EN},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2011-10-10},
	journal = {The Annals of Applied Statistics},
	author = {Rubin, Donald B.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2008},
	note = {Zentralblatt MATH identifier: 1149.62089; Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet): MR2516795},
	pages = {808--840},
	file = {Euclid Project PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/QPASE564/DPubS.html:text/html}
}

@inproceedings{rubin_multiple_1978,
	address = {Alexandria, VA},
	title = {Multiple imputations in sample surveys -- a phenomenological {{B}}ayesian approach to nonresponse},
	booktitle = {Proceedings of the {Section} on {Survey} {Research} {Methods}},
	publisher = {American Statistical Association},
	author = {Rubin, D. B},
	year = {1978},
	pages = {20--34}
}

@book{national_research_council_air_2004,
	address = {Washington, DC},
	title = {Air {Quality} {Management} in the {United} {States}},
	publisher = {National Academies Press},
	author = {{National Research Council}},
	year = {2004}
}

@article{rubin_bayesian_1978,
	title = {Bayesian inference for causal effects: {The} role of randomization},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {00905364},
	shorttitle = {Bayesian {Inference} for {Causal} {Effects}},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2958688},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2008-08-19},
	journal = {The Annals of Statistics},
	author = {Rubin, Donald B.},
	month = jan,
	year = {1978},
	pages = {34--58}
}

@article{sethuraman_constructive_1994,
	title = {A {Constructive} {Definition} of {Dirichlet} {Priors}},
	volume = {4},
	abstract = {The parameter in a Bayesian nonparametric problem is the unknown distribution P of the observation X. A Bayesian uses a prior distribution for P, and after observing X, solves the statistical inference problem by using the posterior distribution of P, which is the conditional distribution of P given X. For Bayesian nonparametrics to be successful one needs a large class of priors for which posterior distributions can be easily calculated. Unless X takes values in a finite space, the unknown distribution P varies in an infinite dimensional space. Thus one has to talk about measures in a complicated space like the space of all probability measures on a large space. This has always required a more careful attention to the attendant measure theoretic problems. A class of priors known as Dirichlet measures have been used for the distribution of a random variable X when it takes values in R sub K.},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2011-09-21},
	journal = {Statistica Sinica},
	author = {Sethuraman, Jayaram},
	year = {1994},
	keywords = {*NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICS, *PROBABILITY, *STATISTICAL INFERENCE, BAYESIAN NONPARAMETRICS, DIRICHLET MEASURES, MEASUREMENT, PROBLEM SOLVING, RANDOM PROBABLILITY MEASURES, STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY, THEORY},
	pages = {639--650},
	file = {DTIC Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/MR7N7TIA/Sethuraman - 1991 - A Constructive Definition of Dirichlet Priors:}
}

@article{pope_iii_mortality_2007,
	title = {Mortality {Effects} of a {Copper} {Smelter} {Strike} and {Reduced} {Ambient} {Sulfate} {Particulate} {Matter} {Air} {Pollution}},
	volume = {115},
	issn = {0091-6765},
	doi = {10.1289/ehp.9762},
	number = {5},
	journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
	author = {Pope III, C. Arden and Rodermund, Douglas L. and Gee, Matthew M.},
	month = may,
	year = {2007},
	pmid = {17520052},
	pmcid = {1867960},
	pages = {679--683}
}

@article{ho_matching_2007,
	title = {Matching as {Nonparametric} {Preprocessing} for {Reducing} {Model} {Dependence} in {Parametric} {Causal} {Inference}},
	volume = {15},
	url = {http://pan.oxfordjournals.org/content/15/3/199.abstract},
	doi = {10.1093/pan/mpl013},
	abstract = {Although published works rarely include causal estimates from more than a few model specifications, authors usually choose the presented estimates from numerous trial runs readers never see. Given the often large variation in estimates across choices of control variables, functional forms, and other modeling assumptions, how can researchers ensure that the few estimates presented are accurate or representative? How do readers know that publications are not merely demonstrations that it is possible to find a specification that fits the author's favorite hypothesis? And how do we evaluate or even define statistical properties like unbiasedness or mean squared error when no unique model or estimator even exists? Matching methods, which offer the promise of causal inference with fewer assumptions, constitute one possible way forward, but crucial results in this fast-growing methodological literature are often grossly misinterpreted. We explain how to avoid these misinterpretations and propose a unified approach that makes it possible for researchers to preprocess data with matching (such as with the easy-to-use software we offer) and then to apply the best parametric techniques they would have used anyway. This procedure makes parametric models produce more accurate and considerably less model-dependent causal inferences.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2011-08-08},
	journal = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Ho, Daniel E. and Imai, Kosuke and King, Gary and Stuart, Elizabeth A.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2007},
	pages = {199 --236},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/FZFABCK6/199.html:text/html}
}

@article{robins_identifiability_1992,
	title = {Identifiability and {Exchangeability} for {Direct} and {Indirect} {Effects}},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {10443983},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/stable/3702894},
	abstract = {We consider the problem of separating the direct effects of an exposure from effects relayed through an intermediate variable (indirect effects). We show that adjustment for the intermediate variable, which is the most common method of estimating direct effects, can be biased. We also show that, even in a randomized crossover trial of exposure, direct and indirect effects cannot be separated without special assumptions; in other words, direct and indirect effects are not separately identifiable when only exposure is randomized. If the exposure and intermediate never interact to cause disease and if intermediate effects can be controlled, that is, blocked by a suitable intervention, then a trial randomizing both exposure and the intervention can separate direct from indirect effects. Nonetheless, the estimation must be carried out using the G-computation algorithm. Conventional adjustment methods remain biased. When exposure and the intermediate interact to cause disease, direct and indirect effects will not be separable even in a trial in which both the exposure and the intervention blocking intermediate effects are randomly assigned. Nonetheless, in such a trial, one can still estimate the fraction of exposure-induced disease that could be prevented by control of the intermediate. Even in the absence of an intervention blocking the intermediate effect, the fraction of exposure-induced disease that could be prevented by control of the intermediate can be estimated with the G-computation algorithm if data are obtained on additional confounding variables.},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2010-11-30},
	journal = {Epidemiology},
	author = {Robins, James M. and Greenland, Sander},
	month = mar,
	year = {1992},
	note = {ArticleType: research-article / Full publication date: Mar., 1992 / Copyright © 1992 Lippincott Williams \& Wilkins},
	pages = {143--155}
}

@article{imai_causal_2004,
	title = {Causal {Inference} {With} {General} {Treatment} {Regimes}},
	volume = {99},
	issn = {0162-1459},
	url = {http://pubs.amstat.org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/doi/abs/10.1198/016214504000001187},
	doi = {10.1198/016214504000001187},
	number = {467},
	urldate = {2011-06-01},
	journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Imai, Kosuke and van Dyk, David A},
	month = sep,
	year = {2004},
	pages = {854--866},
	file = {American Statistical Association - Journal of the American Statistical Association - 99(467)\:854:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/83T8S7XM/016214504000001187.html:text/html}
}

@inproceedings{pearl_direct_2001,
	title = {Direct and indirect effects},
	url = {http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2074073},
	urldate = {2013-01-25},
	booktitle = {Proceedings of the seventeenth conference on uncertainty in artificial intelligence},
	author = {Pearl, J.},
	year = {2001},
	pages = {411--420},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/5ZRW4BUM/citation.html:text/html}
}

@article{friedman_impact_2001,
	title = {Impact of changes in transportation and commuting behaviors during the 1996 {Summer} {Olympic} {Games} in {Atlanta} on air quality and childhood asthma},
	volume = {285},
	url = {http://jama.ama-assn.org/content/285/7/897.short},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2013-07-15},
	journal = {JAMA: the journal of the American Medical Association},
	author = {Friedman, Michael S. and Powell, Kenneth E. and Hutwagner, Lori and Graham, LeRoy M. and Teague, W. Gerald},
	year = {2001},
	pages = {897--905},
	file = {[HTML] from ama-assn.org:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/X3ITNHDH/article.html:text/html;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/NXQHZS6F/article.html:text/html}
}

@techreport{u.s._epa_benefits_1997,
	title = {The {Benefits} and {Costs} of the {Clean} {Air} {Act} 1970 to 1990},
	url = {http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/copy.html},
	urldate = {2011-06-02},
	institution = {US EPA Office of Air and Radiation},
	author = {{U.S. EPA}},
	year = {1997},
	file = {Retrospective Study - Electronic Copy | Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act | US EPA:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/FR8IT9AP/copy.html:text/html}
}

@book{little_statistical_2002,
	title = {Statistical analysis with missing data},
	isbn = {9780471183860},
	publisher = {Wiley},
	author = {Little, Roderick J. A. and Rubin, Donald B.},
	year = {2002}
}

@article{greenland_confounding_1999,
	title = {Confounding and {Collapsibility} in {Causal} {Inference}},
	volume = {14},
	copyright = {Copyright © 1999 Institute of Mathematical Statistics},
	issn = {0883-4237},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2676645},
	abstract = {Consideration of confounding is fundamental to the design and analysis of studies of causal effects. Yet, apart from confounding in experimental designs, the topic is given little or no discussion in most statistics texts. We here provide an overview of confounding and related concepts based on a counterfactual model for causation. Special attention is given to definitions of confounding, problems in control of confounding, the relation of confounding to exchangeability and collapsibility, and the importance of distinguishing confounding from noncollapsibility.},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2012-10-22},
	journal = {Statistical Science},
	author = {Greenland, Sander and Robins, James M. and Pearl, Judea},
	month = feb,
	year = {1999},
	note = {ArticleType: research-article / Full publication date: Feb., 1999 / Copyright © 1999 Institute of Mathematical Statistics},
	pages = {29--46},
	file = {JSTOR Full Text PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/WMEX3D7D/Greenland et al. - 1999 - Confounding and Collapsibility in Causal Inference.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{moore_ambient_2008,
	title = {Ambient {Ozone} {Concentrations} {Cause} {Increased} {Hospitalizations} for {Asthma} in {Children}: {An} 18-{Year} {Study} in {Southern} {California}},
	volume = {116},
	issn = {0091-6765},
	shorttitle = {Ambient {Ozone} {Concentrations} {Cause} {Increased} {Hospitalizations} for {Asthma} in {Children}},
	url = {http://ehp03.niehs.nih.gov/article/fetchArticle.action?articleURI=info%3Adoi%2F10.1289%2Fehp.10497},
	doi = {10.1289/ehp.10497},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2011-08-08},
	journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
	author = {Moore, Kelly and Neugebauer, Romain and Lurmann, Fred and Hall, Jane and Brajer, Vic and Alcorn, Sianna and Tager, Ira},
	month = mar,
	year = {2008},
	pages = {1063--1070},
	file = {Environmental Health Perspectives\: Ambient Ozone Concentrations Cause Increased Hospitalizations for Asthma in Children\: An 18-Year Study in Southern California:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/66JKBFCU/fetchArticle.html:text/html}
}

@article{vanderweele_bias_2011,
	title = {Bias formulas for sensitivity analysis of unmeasured confounding for general outcomes, treatments, and confounders},
	volume = {22},
	issn = {1531-5487},
	url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21052008},
	doi = {10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181f74493},
	abstract = {Uncontrolled confounding in observational studies gives rise to biased effect estimates. Sensitivity analysis techniques can be useful in assessing the magnitude of these biases. In this paper, we use the potential outcomes framework to derive a general class of sensitivity-analysis formulas for outcomes, treatments, and measured and unmeasured confounding variables that may be categorical or continuous. We give results for additive, risk-ratio and odds-ratio scales. We show that these results encompass a number of more specific sensitivity-analysis methods in the statistics and epidemiology literature. The applicability, usefulness, and limits of the bias-adjustment formulas are discussed. We illustrate the sensitivity-analysis techniques that follow from our results by applying them to 3 different studies. The bias formulas are particularly simple and easy to use in settings in which the unmeasured confounding variable is binary with constant effect on the outcome across treatment levels.},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2011-08-04},
	journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)},
	author = {Vander{W}eele, Tyler J and Arah, Onyebuchi A},
	month = jan,
	year = {2011},
	pmid = {21052008},
	keywords = {Bias (Epidemiology), Confounding Factors (Epidemiology), Epidemiologic Studies, Humans, Models, Statistical, Sensitivity and Specificity},
	pages = {42--52}
}

@book{iarc_iarc_2006,
	address = {Lyon, France},
	title = {{IARC} monographs on the evaluation of the carcinogenic risk of chemicals to humans: {Preamble}},
	publisher = {World Health Organization},
	author = {IARC},
	year = {2006}
}

@article{j._vernon_henderson_effects_1996,
	title = {Effects of {Air} {Quality} {Regulation}},
	volume = {86},
	issn = {00028282},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/stable/2118305},
	abstract = {This paper examines effects of ground-level ozone regulation on economic activity. Regulatory effort varies by county attainment status and state attitudes. A switch from attainment to nonattainment status induces greater local regulatory effort, leading to air quality improvement, ceteris paribus, and an exit of polluting industries. Polluting industries spread out, moving from nonattainment (polluted) to attainment (initially less polluted) areas. Localities can improve hourly extreme-value reading which trigger regulatory activity, without improving measures of typical conditions (for example, daily medians), by spreading economic activity over the day to dampen daily ozone peaks.},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2011-01-03},
	journal = {The American Economic Review},
	author = {J. Vernon Henderson},
	year = {1996},
	note = {ArticleType: research-article / Full publication date: Sep., 1996 / Copyright © 1996 American Economic Association},
	pages = {789--813}
}

@article{rosenbaum_consequences_1984,
	title = {The {Consequences} of {Adjustment} for a {Concomitant} {Variable} {That} {Has} {Been} {Affected} by the {Treatment}},
	volume = {147},
	issn = {00359238},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2981697},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2008-10-08},
	journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General)},
	author = {Rosenbaum, Paul R.},
	year = {1984},
	pages = {656--666}
}

@article{chay_impact_2003,
	title = {The impact of air pollution on infant mortality: evidence from geographic variation in pollution shocks induced by a recession},
	volume = {118},
	shorttitle = {The impact of air pollution on infant mortality},
	url = {http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/118/3/1121.short},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2013-07-15},
	journal = {The quarterly journal of economics},
	author = {Chay, Kenneth Y. and Greenstone, Michael},
	year = {2003},
	pages = {1121--1167},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/6W4ET8WW/1121.html:text/html}
}

@article{dominici_use_2002,
	title = {On the {Use} of {Generalized} {Additive} {Models} in {Time}-{Series} {Studies} of {Air} {Pollution} and {Health}},
	volume = {156},
	url = {http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/156/3/193.abstract},
	doi = {10.1093/aje/kwf062},
	abstract = {The widely used generalized additive models (GAM) method is a flexible and effective technique for conducting nonlinear regression analysis in time-series studies of the health effects of air pollution. When the data to which the GAM are being applied have two characteristics—1) the estimated regression coefficients are small and 2) there exist confounding factors that are modeled using at least two nonparametric smooth functions—the default settings in the gam function of the S-Plus software package (version 3.4) do not assure convergence of its iterative estimation procedure and can provide biased estimates of regression coefficients and standard errors. This phenomenon has occurred in time-series analyses of contemporary data on air pollution and mortality. To evaluate the impact of default implementation of the gam software on published analyses, the authors reanalyzed data from the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) using three different methods: 1) Poisson regression with parametric nonlinear adjustments for confounding factors; 2) GAM with default convergence parameters; and 3) GAM with more stringent convergence parameters than the default settings. The authors found that pooled NMMAPS estimates were very similar under the first and third methods but were biased upward under the second method. Am J Epidemiol 2002;156:193–203.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2011-08-15},
	journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
	author = {Dominici, Francesca and McDermott, Aidan and Zeger, Scott L. and Samet, Jonathan M.},
	year = {2002},
	pages = {193 --203},
	file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/EJK6NT5E/Dominici et al. - 2002 - On the Use of Generalized Additive Models in Time-.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/KR7KRHRK/193.html:text/html}
}

@incollection{rubin_statistical_2008,
	address = {Netherlands},
	title = {Statistical {Inference} for {Causal} {Effects}, {With} {Emphasis} on {Applications} in {Epidemiology} and {Medical} {Statistics}},
	volume = {27},
	booktitle = {Handbook of {Statistics}: {Epidemiology} and {Medical} {Statistics}},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	author = {Rubin, Donald B.},
	year = {2008},
	pages = {28--63}
}

@techreport{imbens_recent_2008,
	title = {Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w14251},
	urldate = {2012-12-07},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Imbens, G. M. and Wooldridge, J. M.},
	year = {2008},
	file = {[PDF] from econstor.eu:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/M9CKGMJI/Imbens and Wooldridge - 2008 - Recent developments in the econometrics of program.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/HSMTPPK9/w14251.html:text/html}
}

@article{imbens_regression_2008,
	title = {Regression discontinuity designs: {A} guide to practice},
	volume = {142},
	shorttitle = {Regression discontinuity designs},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407607001091},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2012-12-12},
	journal = {Journal of Econometrics},
	author = {Imbens, G. W. and Lemieux, T.},
	year = {2008},
	pages = {615--635},
	file = {[PDF] from bcrp.gob.pe:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/UE83TIV8/Imbens and Lemieux - 2008 - Regression discontinuity designs A guide to pract.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/VDNERCUE/S0304407607001091.html:text/html}
}

@article{robins_marginal_2000,
	title = {Marginal {Structural} {Models} and {Causal} {Inference} in {Epidemiology}.},
	volume = {11},
	number = {5},
	journal = {Epidemiology},
	author = {Robins, J. M. and Hernan, MÃ and Brumback, B.},
	year = {2000},
	pages = {550}
}

@article{chen_evidence_2013,
	title = {Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from {China}’s {Huai} {River} policy},
	volume = {110},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/07/03/1300018110},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1300018110},
	abstract = {This paper's findings suggest that an arbitrary Chinese policy that greatly increases total suspended particulates (TSPs) air pollution is causing the 500 million residents of Northern China to lose more than 2.5 billion life years of life expectancy. The quasi-experimental empirical approach is based on China’s Huai River policy, which provided free winter heating via the provision of coal for boilers in cities north of the Huai River but denied heat to the south. Using a regression discontinuity design based on distance from the Huai River, we find that ambient concentrations of TSPs are about 184 μg/m3 [95\% confidence interval (CI): 61, 307] or 55\% higher in the north. Further, the results indicate that life expectancies are about 5.5 y (95\% CI: 0.8, 10.2) lower in the north owing to an increased incidence of cardiorespiratory mortality. More generally, the analysis suggests that long-term exposure to an additional 100 μg/m3 of TSPs is associated with a reduction in life expectancy at birth of about 3.0 y (95\% CI: 0.4, 5.6).},
	language = {en},
	number = {32},
	urldate = {2013-07-15},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Chen, Yuyu and Ebenstein, Avraham and Greenstone, Michael and Li, Hongbin},
	month = jul,
	year = {2013},
	pmid = {23836630},
	keywords = {airborne particulate matter, Chinese environmental quality, health costs of coal combustion, premature mortality, unintended consequences of policy},
	pages = {12936--12941},
	file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/WQC7V2QQ/Chen et al. - 2013 - Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to ai.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/JKG6UZVR/1300018110.html:text/html}
}

@article{peters_influence_2009,
	title = {The influence of improved air quality on mortality risks in {Erfurt}, {Germany}.},
	url = {http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/19554968},
	number = {137},
	urldate = {2013-07-15},
	journal = {Research report (Health Effects Institute)},
	author = {Peters, Annette and Breitner, Susanne and Cyrys, Josef and Stölzel, Matthias and Pitz, Mike and Wölke, Gabriele and Heinrich, Joachim and Kreyling, Wolfgang and Küchenhoff, Helmut and Wichmann, H.-Erich},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {5--77},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/D42JNIP2/19554968.html:text/html}
}

@article{katz_treatment_2006,
	title = {Treatment {Effects} of {Maternal} {Micronutrient} {Supplementation} {Vary} by {Percentiles} of the {Birth} {Weight} {Distribution} in {Rural} {Nepal}},
	volume = {136},
	url = {http://jn.nutrition.org/content/136/5/1389.abstract},
	abstract = {Certain antenatal micronutrient supplements increased birth weight by 40–70 g in rural Nepal. The effect was estimated by calculating the mean difference in birth weight between control and treatment groups, which assumes a constant treatment effect across the birth weight distribution. By estimating differences (and CI) in birth weight between treatment and control groups as a nonlinear, smooth function of the percentiles of the birth weight distribution, we can examine whether the shape of the birth weight distribution for a treatment group is different from that of the control group. Supplementation groups were folic acid, folic acid and iron, folic acid and iron and zinc, and a multiple micronutrient supplement all with vitamin A, compared with the control group of vitamin A alone. The shape of the birth weight distribution in the multiple micronutrient group was the same as that of the control group; however, the location of the distribution had shifted. The folic acid and iron group had fewer infants in the lower tail of its distribution but a similar proportion in the upper tail compared with the control group. The biologic pathways affecting intrauterine growth may vary by micronutrients such that some may confer a benefit among the most vulnerable infants, whereas others may have a more constant effect across the birth weight distribution. Future analytic approaches to estimating benefits of maternal supplementation on birth weight should examine whether there is a constant or variable treatment effect across the distribution of birth weight.},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2011-08-09},
	journal = {The Journal of Nutrition},
	author = {Katz, Joanne and Christian, Parul and Dominici, Francesca and Zeger, Scott L.},
	month = may,
	year = {2006},
	pages = {1389 --1394},
	file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/RRRHSMIN/Katz et al. - 2006 - Treatment Effects of Maternal Micronutrient Supple.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/98T7HDH6/1389.html:text/html}
}

@article{vanderweele_odds_2010,
	title = {Odds {Ratios} for {Mediation} {Analysis} for a {Dichotomous} {Outcome}},
	volume = {172},
	url = {http://aje.oxfordjournals.org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/content/172/12/1339.abstract},
	doi = {10.1093/aje/kwq332},
	abstract = {For dichotomous outcomes, the authors discuss when the standard approaches to mediation analysis used in epidemiology and the social sciences are valid, and they provide alternative mediation analysis techniques when the standard approaches will not work. They extend definitions of controlled direct effects and natural direct and indirect effects from the risk difference scale to the odds ratio scale. A simple technique to estimate direct and indirect effect odds ratios by combining logistic and linear regressions is described that applies when the outcome is rare and the mediator continuous. Further discussion is given as to how this mediation analysis technique can be extended to settings in which data come from a case-control study design. For the standard mediation analysis techniques used in the epidemiologic and social science literatures to be valid, an assumption of no interaction between the effects of the exposure and the mediator on the outcome is needed. The approach presented here, however, will apply even when there are interactions between the effect of the exposure and the mediator on the outcome.},
	number = {12},
	urldate = {2010-12-17},
	journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
	author = {VanderWeele, Tyler J. and Vansteelandt, Stijn},
	month = dec,
	year = {2010},
	pages = {1339 --1348},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/W9ZWU978/1339.full.html:text/html}
}

@article{pope_iii_particulate_1996,
	title = {Particulate pollution and health: a review of the {Utah} valley experience.},
	volume = {6},
	shorttitle = {Particulate pollution and health},
	url = {http://ukpmc.ac.uk/abstract/MED/8777371},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2012-12-07},
	journal = {Journal of exposure analysis and environmental epidemiology},
	author = {Pope III, C. A.},
	year = {1996},
	pages = {23--34},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/64D4M9TR/reload=0.html:text/html}
}

@misc{u.s._epa_science_1999,
	title = {Science {Algorithms} of the {EPA} {Models}-3 {Community} {Multiscale} {Air} {Quality} ({CMAQ}) {Modeling} {System}},
	publisher = {EPA Office of Research and Development},
	author = {{U.S. EPA}},
	year = {1999}
}

@book{health_effects_institute_proceedings_2010,
	address = {Boston, MA},
	title = {Proceedings of an {{HEI}} {Workshop} on {Further} {Research} to {Assess} the {Health} {Impacts} of {Actions} {Taken} to {Improve} {Air} {Quality}},
	publisher = {Health Effects Institute},
	author = {{Health Effects Institute}},
	year = {2010}
}

@article{vanderweele_marginal_2009,
	title = {Marginal {Structural} {Models} for the {Estimation} of {Direct} and {Indirect} {Effects}},
	volume = {20},
	issn = {1044-3983},
	url = {http://journals.lww.com/epidem/Abstract/2009/01000/Marginal_Structural_Models_for_the_Estimation_of.6.aspx},
	doi = {10.1097/EDE.0b013e31818f69ce},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2011-08-08},
	journal = {Epidemiology},
	author = {VanderWeele, Tyler J.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {18--26},
	file = {Marginal Structural Models for the Estimation of Direct and... \: Epidemiology:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/KAKGRF4J/Marginal_Structural_Models_for_the_Estimation_of.6.html:text/html}
}

@article{krewski_overview_2003,
	title = {Overview of the reanalysis of the {Harvard} six cities study and {American} {Cancer} {Society} study of particulate air pollution and mortality},
	volume = {66},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15287390306424},
	number = {16-19},
	urldate = {2013-10-25},
	journal = {Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health Part A},
	author = {Krewski, Daniel and Burnett, Richard and Goldberg, Mark and Hoover, B. Kristin and Siemiatycki, Jack and Jerrett, Michael and Abrahamowicz, Michal and White, Warren},
	year = {2003},
	pages = {1507--1552},
	file = {[PDF] from evergreen.edu:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/SSRAJHJB/Krewski et al. - 2003 - Overview of the reanalysis of the Harvard six citi.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/MVHB9QWN/15287390306424.html:text/html}
}

@book{dockery_effect_2013,
	address = {Boston, MA},
	title = {Effect of {Air} {Pollution} {Control} on {Mortality} and {Hospital} {Admissions} in {Ireland}},
	publisher = {Health Effects Institute},
	author = {Dockery, Douglas W. and RIch, David Q. and Goodman, Patrick G. and Clancy, Luke and Ohman-Strickland, Pamela and George, Prethibha and Kotlov, Tania},
	year = {2013}
}

@techreport{u.s._epa_environmental_2012,
	title = {Environmental {Benefits} {Mapping} and {Analysis} {Program} ({BenMAP}) {User}'s {Manual}},
	url = {http://www.epa.gov/air/benmap/},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2013-12-02},
	institution = {US EPA},
	author = {{U.S. EPA}},
	year = {2012},
	note = {Information on the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP)},
	keywords = {Air pollution, Air quality, benefits, Risk},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/ZUDX4V39/benmap.html:text/html}
}

@book{peel_impact_2010,
	address = {Boston, MA},
	title = {Impact of {Improved} {Air} {Quality} {During} the 1996 {Summer} {Olympic} {Games} in {Atlanta} on {Multiple} {Cardiovascular} and {Respiratory} {Outcomes}},
	publisher = {Health Effects Institute},
	author = {Peel, Jennifer L. and Klein, Mitchell and Flanders, W. Dana and Mulholland, James A. and Tolbert, Paige E.},
	year = {2010}
}

@article{van_erp_progress_2012,
	title = {Progress in research to assess the effectiveness of air quality interventions towards improving public health},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {1873-9318, 1873-9326},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11869-010-0127-y},
	doi = {10.1007/s11869-010-0127-y},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2014-04-03},
	journal = {Air Quality, Atmosphere \& Health},
	author = {van Erp, Annemoon M. and Kelly, Frank J. and Demerjian, Kenneth L. and Pope III, C. Arden and Cohen, Aaron J.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {Accountability, Air quality, Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution, Environmental Health, Epidemiology, Exposure assessment, Health Promotion and Disease Prevention, Impact assessment, Intervention},
	pages = {217--230},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/GQ8WA6RW/10.html:text/html}
}

@book{hidy_technical_2011,
	address = {New York, NY},
	title = {Technical {Challenges} of {Multipollutant} {Air} {Quality} {Management}},
	url = {http://www.springer.com/environment/pollution+and+remediation/book/978-94-007-0303-2},
	abstract = {Recent critiques of air quality management approaches currently employed in developed and many developingcountries have suggested that efficiencies could be achieved if air quality management practices shifted ...},
	urldate = {2014-04-07},
	publisher = {Springer},
	author = {Hidy, G.M. and Brook, J.R. and Demerjian, K.L. and Pennell, W.T. and Scheffe, R.D.},
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {Atmospheric Protection / Air Quality Control / Air Pollution, Environmental Chemistry, Technical Challenges of Multipollutant Air Quality Management},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/AENMXSRW/978-94-007-0303-2.html:text/html}
}

@article{van_erp_recent_2012,
	title = {Recent progress and challenges in assessing the effectiveness of air quality interventions towards improving public health: the {HEI} experience},
	journal = {EM Magazine},
	author = {van Erp, Annemoon M and Cohen, Aaron J. and Shaikh, Rashid and O'Keefe, Robert},
	month = oct,
	year = {2012},
	pages = {22--28}
}

@inproceedings{u.s._epa_workshop_2013,
	address = {Research Triangel Park, NC},
	title = {Workshop on {Designing} {Research} to {Assess} {Air} {Quality} and {Health} {Outcomes} from {Air} {Pollution} {Regulations}},
	url = {http://www.cleanairinfo.com/finepmpolicy/},
	booktitle = {Designing {Research} to {Assess} {Air} {QuAlity} and {Health} {Outcomes} from {Air} {Pollution} {Regulations}},
	author = {{U.S. EPA}},
	year = {2013}
}

@article{hubbell_assessing_2012,
	title = {Assessing the {Results} of {Air} {Quality} {Management} {Programs}},
	journal = {EM Magazine},
	author = {Hubbell, Bryan},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {8--15}
}

@article{cefalu_posterior-predictive_2015,
	title = {Posterior-predictive treatment assignments and the estimation of causal effects},
	journal = {Technical Report},
	author = {Cefalu, Matthew and Zigler, Corwin M},
	year = {2015}
}

@article{hubbell_moving_2014,
	title = {Moving from {Potential}-{Outcomes} {Thinking} to {Doing}:  {Changing} {Research} {Planning} to {Enable} {Successful} {Health} {Outcomes} {Research}},
	volume = {In Press},
	journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
	author = {Hubbell, Bryan and Greenbaum, Daniel},
	year = {2014}
}

@article{correia_effect_2013,
	title = {Effect of {Air} {Pollution} {Control} on {Life} {Expectancy} in the {United} {States}: {An} {Analysis} of 545 {U}.{S}. {Counties} for the {Period} from 2000 to 2007},
	volume = {24},
	issn = {1044-3983},
	shorttitle = {Effect of {Air} {Pollution} {Control} on {Life} {Expectancy} in the {United} {States}},
	url = {http://journals.lww.com/epidem/Abstract/2013/01000/Effect_of_Air_Pollution_Control_on_Life_Expectancy.4.aspx},
	doi = {10.1097/EDE.0b013e3182770237},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2014-05-14},
	journal = {Epidemiology},
	author = {Correia, Andrew W. and Pope, C. Arden and Dockery, Douglas W. and Wang, Yun and Ezzati, Majid and Dominici, Francesca},
	month = jan,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {23--31},
	file = {Effect of Air Pollution Control on Life Expectancy in the Un... \: Epidemiology:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/FBTR8BCU/Effect_of_Air_Pollution_Control_on_Life_Expectancy.4.html:text/html}
}

@article{dominici_particulate_2014,
	title = {Particulate {Matter} {Matters}},
	volume = {344},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/344/6181/257},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1247348},
	abstract = {April 22nd is the 45th Earth Day, which marks the birth of the modern environmental movement that helped lead to the creation of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Clean Air Act Amendments, and the Clean Water Act. The result has been substantial improvements in environmental quality in the United States. Today, developing countries are contending with levels of pollution that are even higher than those in the United States before the first Earth Day. And in a period of considerable economic difficulty, the United States is trying to strike the right balance between the benefits and costs of further reductions in pollution.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6181},
	urldate = {2014-05-14},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Dominici, Francesca and Greenstone, Michael and Sunstein, Cass R.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2014},
	pmid = {24744361},
	pages = {257--259},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/XCUZZE8Z/257.html:text/html}
}

@article{glass_causal_2013,
	title = {Causal inference in public health},
	volume = {34},
	issn = {1545-2093},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031811-124606},
	abstract = {Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action's consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor's causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world.},
	language = {eng},
	journal = {Annual review of public health},
	author = {Glass, Thomas A and Goodman, Steven N and Hernán, Miguel A and Samet, Jonathan M},
	year = {2013},
	pmid = {23297653},
	keywords = {Causality, Health Promotion, Humans, Outcome Assessment (Health Care), Public Health},
	pages = {61--75}
}

@techreport{deschenes_defensive_2012,
	address = {Cambridge, MA},
	type = {Working {Paper}},
	title = {Defensive {Investments} and the {Demand} for {Air} {Quality}: {Evidence} from the {NOx} {Budget} {Program} and {Ozone} {Reductions}},
	shorttitle = {Defensive {Investments} and the {Demand} for {Air} {Quality}},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w18267},
	abstract = {Willingness to pay for air quality is a function of health and the costly defensive investments that contribute to health, but there is little research assessing the empirical importance of defensive investments. The setting for this paper is a large US emissions cap and trade market – the NOx Budget Trading Program (NBP) – that has greatly reduced NOx emissions since its initiation in 2003. Using rich quasi-experimental variation, we find that the reductions in NOx emissions decreased the number of summer days with high ozone levels by about 25\%. The NBP also led to reductions in expenditures on prescription pharmaceutical expenditures of about 1.9\%. Additionally, the summer mortality rate declined by approximately 0.5\%, indicating that there were about 2,200 fewer premature deaths per summer, mainly among individuals 75 and older. The monetized value of the reductions in pharmaceutical purchases and mortality rates are each roughly \$900 million annually, suggesting that defensive investments are a significant portion of willingness to pay for air quality. Finally, we cautiously conclude that the reductions in ozone are the primary channel for these reductions in defensive investments and mortality rates, which indicates that willingness to pay for ozone reductions is larger than previously understood.},
	number = {18267},
	urldate = {2014-05-14},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Deschenes, Olivier and Greenstone, Michael and Shapiro, Joseph S.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2012},
	file = {NBER Full Text PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/RGRQHFTX/Deschenes et al. - 2012 - Defensive Investments and the Demand for Air Quali.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{levy_quantifying_2007,
	title = {Quantifying the efficiency and equity implications of power plant air pollution control strategies in the {United} {States}},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/4489022},
	urldate = {2014-07-28},
	journal = {Environmental health perspectives},
	author = {Levy, Jonathan I. and Wilson, Andrew M. and Zwack, Leonard M.},
	year = {2007},
	pages = {743--750},
	file = {[PDF] from rpi.edu:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/BQ9QDB5G/Levy et al. - 2007 - Quantifying the efficiency and equity implications.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/82448UUE/4489022.html:text/html}
}

@article{buonocore_using_2014,
	title = {Using the {Community} {Multiscale} {Air} {Quality} ({CMAQ}) model to estimate public health impacts of {PM}2.5 from individual power plants},
	volume = {68},
	issn = {0160-4120},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412014001111},
	doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2014.03.031},
	abstract = {We estimated PM2.5-related public health impacts/ton emitted of primary PM2.5, SO2, and NOx for a set of power plants in the Mid-Atlantic and Lower Great Lakes regions of the United States, selected to include varying emission profiles and broad geographic representation. We then developed a regression model explaining variability in impacts per ton emitted using the population distributions around each plant. We linked outputs from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model v 4.7.1 with census data and concentration–response functions for PM2.5-related mortality, and monetized health estimates using the value-of-statistical-life. The median impacts for the final set of plants were \$130,000/ton for primary PM2.5 (range: \$22,000–230,000), \$28,000/ton for SO2 (range: \$19,000–33,000), and \$16,000/ton for NOx (range: \$7100–26,000). Impacts of NOx were a median of 34\% (range: 20\%–75\%) from ammonium nitrate and 66\% (range: 25\%–79\%) from ammonium sulfate. The latter pathway is likely from NOx enhancing atmospheric oxidative capacity and amplifying sulfate formation, and is often excluded. Our regression models explained most of the variation in impact/ton estimates using basic population covariates, and can aid in estimating impacts averted from interventions such as pollution controls, alternative energy installations, or demand-side management.},
	urldate = {2014-07-28},
	journal = {Environment International},
	author = {Buonocore, Jonathan J. and Dong, Xinyi and Spengler, John D. and Fu, Joshua S. and Levy, Jonathan I.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {Air quality, Atmospheric modeling, CMAQ, Impacts of electrical generation, PM2.5},
	pages = {200--208},
	file = {ScienceDirect Full Text PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/4X6WRRQH/Buonocore et al. - 2014 - Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) .pdf:application/pdf;ScienceDirect Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/WVN3RJJ3/S0160412014001111.html:text/html}
}

@article{levy_uncertainty_2009,
	title = {Uncertainty and {Variability} in {Health}-{Related} {Damages} from {Coal}-{Fired} {Power} {Plants} in the {United} {States}},
	volume = {29},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01227.x/full},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2014-07-28},
	journal = {Risk Analysis},
	author = {Levy, Jonathan I. and Baxter, Lisa K. and Schwartz, Joel},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {1000--1014},
	file = {[PDF] from harvard.edu:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/RQD6RX49/Levy et al. - 2009 - Uncertainty and Variability in Health-Related Dama.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/FBCA6QX6/full.html:text/html}
}

@article{caiazzo_air_2013,
	title = {Air pollution and early deaths in the {United} {States}. {Part} {I}: {Quantifying} the impact of major sectors in 2005},
	volume = {79},
	shorttitle = {Air pollution and early deaths in the {United} {States}. {Part} {I}},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231013004548},
	urldate = {2014-07-28},
	journal = {Atmospheric Environment},
	author = {Caiazzo, Fabio and Ashok, Akshay and Waitz, Ian A. and Yim, Steve HL and Barrett, Steven RH},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {198--208},
	file = {[PDF] from mit.edu:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/W38KF6XN/Caiazzo et al. - 2013 - Air pollution and early deaths in the United State.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/T3A87MT9/S1352231013004548.html:text/html}
}

@incollection{robins_marginal_2000-1,
	title = {Marginal structural models versus structural nested models as tools for causal inference},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4612-1284-3_2},
	urldate = {2014-07-28},
	booktitle = {Statistical models in epidemiology, the environment, and clinical trials},
	publisher = {Springer},
	author = {Robins, James M.},
	year = {2000},
	pages = {95--133},
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@article{feng_generalized_2012,
	title = {Generalized propensity score for estimating the average treatment effect of multiple treatments},
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	urldate = {2014-07-28},
	journal = {Statistics in medicine},
	author = {Feng, Ping and Zhou, Xiao-Hua and Zou, Qing-Ming and Fan, Ming-Yu and Li, Xiao-Song},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {681--697},
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}

@article{rosenbaum_assessing_1983,
	title = {Assessing sensitivity to an unobserved binary covariate in an observational study with binary outcome},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2345524},
	urldate = {2014-07-28},
	journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological)},
	author = {Rosenbaum, Paul R. and Rubin, Donald B.},
	year = {1983},
	pages = {212--218},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/7MZXZ25I/2345524.html:text/html}
}

@article{cornfield_smoking_2009,
	title = {Smoking and lung cancer: recent evidence and a discussion of some questions},
	volume = {38},
	shorttitle = {Smoking and lung cancer},
	url = {http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/38/5/1175.short},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2014-07-28},
	journal = {International journal of epidemiology},
	author = {Cornfield, Jerome and Haenszel, William and Hammond, E. Cuyler and Lilienfeld, Abraham M. and Shimkin, Michael B. and Wynder, Ernst L.},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {1175--1191},
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@article{harrington_did_2012,
	title = {Did the {Clean} {Air} {Act} {Amendments} of 1990 really improve air quality?},
	volume = {5},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11869-012-0176-5},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2014-07-28},
	journal = {Air Quality, Atmosphere \& Health},
	author = {Harrington, Winston and Morgenstern, Richard and Shih, Jhih-Shyang and Bell, Michelle L.},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {353--367},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/QNRTSSRI/s11869-012-0176-5.html:text/html}
}

@article{verbitsky-savitz_causal_2012,
	title = {Causal inference under interference in spatial settings: a case study evaluating community policing program in {Chicago}},
	volume = {1},
	shorttitle = {Causal inference under interference in spatial settings},
	url = {http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/em.2012.1.issue-1/2161-962X.1020/2161-962X.1020.xml},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2014-07-28},
	journal = {Epidemiologic Methods},
	author = {Verbitsky-Savitz, Natalya and Raudenbush, Stephen W.},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {107--130},
	file = {[PDF] from degruyter.com:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/GXJ96GVA/Verbitsky-Savitz and Raudenbush - 2012 - Causal inference under interference in spatial set.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/P95ZFTAD/2161-962X.1020.html:text/html}
}

@article{hong_evaluating_2006,
	title = {Evaluating kindergarten retention policy: {A} case study of causal inference for multilevel observational data},
	volume = {101},
	url = {http://amstat.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1198/016214506000000447},
	number = {475},
	urldate = {2014-07-28},
	journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Hong, Guanglei and Raudenbush, Stephen W.},
	year = {2006},
	file = {[PDF] from umich.edu:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/U9DCQJWG/Hong and Raudenbush - 2006 - Evaluating kindergarten retention policy.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/KD7B4M7X/016214506000000447.html:text/html}
}

@article{bowers_reasoning_2013,
	title = {Reasoning about interference between units: a general framework},
	volume = {21},
	shorttitle = {Reasoning about interference between units},
	url = {http://pan.oxfordjournals.org/content/21/1/97.short},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2014-07-28},
	journal = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Bowers, Jake and Fredrickson, Mark M. and Panagopoulos, Costas},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {97--124},
	file = {[PDF] from arxiv.org:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/BQMNPSEA/Bowers et al. - 2013 - Reasoning about interference between units a gene.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/6SJ8RV26/97.html:text/html}
}

@article{aronow_estimating_2013,
	title = {Estimating {Average} {Causal} {Effects} {Under} {Interference} {Between} {Units}},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1305.6156},
	abstract = {This paper presents a randomization-based framework for estimating causal effects under interference between units. We develop the case of estimating average unit-level causal effects from a randomized experiment with interference of arbitrary but known form. We illustrate and assess empirical performance with a naturalistic simulation using network data from American high schools. We discuss other applications and sketch approaches for situations where there is uncertainty about the form of interference.},
	urldate = {2014-07-28},
	journal = {arXiv:1305.6156 [math, stat]},
	author = {Aronow, Peter M. and Samii, Cyrus},
	month = may,
	year = {2013},
	note = {arXiv: 1305.6156},
	keywords = {62-07, 62G05, 62P25, Mathematics - Statistics Theory, Statistics - Methodology},
	file = {arXiv\:1305.6156 PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/4UD68PVD/Aronow and Samii - 2013 - Estimating Average Causal Effects Under Interferen.pdf:application/pdf;arXiv.org Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/WQQZB6MP/1305.html:text/html}
}

@article{kim_longitudinal_2015,
	title = {Longitudinal {Causal} {Mediation} {Analysis} for {Behaviorial} {Trials}},
	journal = {Technical Report},
	author = {Kim, Chanmin and Daniels, Michael J and Roy, Jason A. and Marcus, Bess H.},
	year = {2015}
}

@article{reich_multivariate_2007,
	title = {A multivariate semiparametric {Bayesian} spatial modeling framework for hurricane surface wind fields},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/4537431},
	urldate = {2014-07-29},
	journal = {The Annals of Applied Statistics},
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	year = {2007},
	pages = {249--264}
}

@book{mackinnon_introduction_2008,
	title = {Introduction to statistical mediation analysis},
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	urldate = {2014-07-29},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {MacKinnon, David Peter},
	year = {2008},
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}

@article{reich_bayesian_2011,
	title = {Bayesian spatial quantile regression},
	volume = {106},
	url = {http://amstat.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1198/jasa.2010.ap09237},
	number = {493},
	urldate = {2014-07-29},
	journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Reich, Brian J. and Fuentes, Montserrat and Dunson, David B.},
	year = {2011},
	file = {[HTML] from nih.gov:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/33GPZNCC/PMC3583387.html:text/html;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/WZHKFI5K/jasa.2010.html:text/html}
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@article{zigler_point:_2014,
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	shorttitle = {Point},
	url = {http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/11/14/aje.kwu263.short},
	urldate = {2015-01-04},
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	issue = {12},
	journal = {American journal of epidemiology},
	author = {Zigler, Corwin Matthew and Dominici, Francesca},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {1133-1140},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/E8X955B9/aje.kwu263.html:text/html}
}

@article{crosas_dataverse_2011,
	title = {The {Dataverse} {Network}®: {An} {Open}-{Source} {Application} for {Sharing}, {Discovering} and {Preserving} {Data}},
	volume = {17},
	issn = {1082-9873},
	shorttitle = {The {Dataverse} {Network}®},
	url = {http://www.dlib.org/dlib/january11/crosas/01crosas.html},
	doi = {10.1045/january2011-crosas},
	language = {en},
	number = {1/2},
	urldate = {2015-01-10},
	journal = {D-Lib Magazine},
	author = {Crosas, Mercè},
	month = jan,
	year = {2011},
	file = {The Dataverse Network\: An Open-Source Application for Sharing, Discovering and Preserving Data:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/VS4R2569/01crosas.html:text/html}
}

@article{zanobetti_national_2014,
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	urldate = {2015-05-07},
	journal = {Environmental Health},
	author = {Zanobetti, Antonella and Dominici, Francesca and Wang, Yun and Schwartz, Joel D.},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {38},
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@article{king_introduction_2007,
	title = {An introduction to the {Dataverse} {Network} as an infrastructure for data sharing},
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	url = {http://smr.sagepub.com/content/36/2/173.short},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2015-05-07},
	journal = {Sociological Methods \& Research},
	author = {King, Gary},
	year = {2007},
	pages = {173--199},
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}

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	urldate = {2015-05-07},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Schmalensee, Richard and Stavins, Robert},
	year = {2012},
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}

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	number = {4},
	urldate = {2015-05-07},
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}

@article{burtraw_cost_1999,
	title = {Cost savings, market performance and economic benefits of the {US} {Acid} {Rain} {Program}},
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	urldate = {2015-05-07},
	journal = {Pollution for Sale. Emissions Trading and Joint Implementation, Cheltenham},
	author = {Burtraw, Dallas},
	year = {1999},
	pages = {43--62},
	file = {[PDF] from rff.org:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/VCKE2RTA/Burtraw - 1999 - Cost savings, market performance and economic bene.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/3H3NE357/books.html:text/html}
}

@article{chestnut_fresh_2005,
	title = {A fresh look at the benefits and costs of the {US} acid rain program},
	volume = {77},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479705002124},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2015-05-07},
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	year = {2005},
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}

@article{banzhaf_valuation_2006,
	title = {Valuation of natural resource improvements in the {Adirondacks}},
	volume = {82},
	url = {http://le.uwpress.org/content/82/3/445.short},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2015-05-07},
	journal = {Land Economics},
	author = {Banzhaf, H. Spencer and Burtraw, Dallas and Evans, David and Krupnick, Alan},
	year = {2006},
	pages = {445--464},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/6XPV5VF8/445.html:text/html}
}

@article{imai_identification_2013,
	title = {Identification and sensitivity analysis for multiple causal mechanisms: {Revisiting} evidence from framing experiments},
	volume = {21},
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	url = {http://pan.oxfordjournals.org/content/21/2/141.short},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2015-05-07},
	journal = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Imai, Kosuke and Yamamoto, Teppei},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {141--171},
	file = {[PDF] from mit.edu:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/9TB34SN5/Imai and Yamamoto - 2013 - Identification and sensitivity analysis for multip.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/DNVAX45A/141.html:text/html}
}

@article{daniel_causal_2014,
	title = {Causal mediation analysis with multiple mediators},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/biom.12248/full},
	urldate = {2015-05-07},
	journal = {Biometrics},
	author = {Daniel, R. M. and De Stavola, B. L. and Cousens, S. N. and Vansteelandt, S.},
	year = {2014},
	file = {[HTML] from wiley.com:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/5TINTWKV/full.html:text/html}
}

@article{vanderweele_mediation_2014,
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	number = {1},
	urldate = {2015-05-07},
	journal = {Epidemiologic methods},
	author = {VanderWeele, Tyler and Vansteelandt, Stijn},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {95--115},
	file = {[PDF] from degruyter.com:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/H2SBUB56/VanderWeele and Vansteelandt - 2014 - Mediation analysis with multiple mediators.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/K2R2SUUI/em-2012-0010.html:text/html}
}

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}

@article{muller_bayesian_1996,
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	url = {http://biomet.oxfordjournals.org/content/83/1/67.short},
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	urldate = {2015-05-07},
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	year = {1996},
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}

@article{jara_dppackage:_2011,
	title = {{DPpackage}: {Bayesian} {Non}–and {Semi}–parametric {Modeling} in {R}},
	shorttitle = {{DPpackage}},
	url = {http://www.mat.uc.cl/~ajara/Publications_files/DPpackage.pdf},
	urldate = {2015-05-07},
	author = {Jara, Alejandro and Hanson, Timothy E. and Quintana, Fernando A. and Müller, Peter and Rosner, Gary L.},
	year = {2011},
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@book{nelsen_introduction_1999,
	title = {An introduction to copulas},
	volume = {139},
	url = {http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=5Q7ooTrVe9sC&oi=fnd&pg=PR7&dq=An+Introduction+to+Copulas&ots=Qj93C-7ZaQ&sig=TFRLrOeDDMl9vg_5TTiYErlG7zE},
	urldate = {2015-05-07},
	publisher = {Springer Science \& Business Media},
	author = {Nelsen, Roger B.},
	year = {1999},
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}

@article{galea_argument_2013,
	title = {An {Argument} for a {Consequentialist} {Epidemiology}},
	issn = {0002-9262, 1476-6256},
	url = {http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2013/09/09/aje.kwt172},
	doi = {10.1093/aje/kwt172},
	abstract = {Epidemiology is the study of the causes and distributions of diseases in human populations so that we may identify ways to prevent and control disease. Although this definition broadly serves us well, I suggest that in recent decades, our discipline's robust interest in identifying causes has come at the expense of a more rigorous engagement with the second part of our vision for ourselves—the intent for us to intervene—and that this approach threatens to diminish our field's relevance. I argue here for a consequentialist epidemiology, a formalization and recalibration of the philosophical foundations of our discipline. I discuss how epidemiology is, at its core, more comfortably a consequentialist, as opposed to a deontological, discipline. A more consequentialist approach to epidemiology has several implications. It clarifies our research priorities, offers a perspective on the place of novel epidemiologic approaches and a metric to evaluate the utility of new methods, elevates the importance of global health and considerations about equity to the discipline, brings into sharp focus our engagement in implementation and translational science, and has implications for how we teach our students. I intend this article to be a provocation that can help clarify our disciplinary intentions.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2015-05-11},
	journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
	author = {Galea, Sandro},
	month = sep,
	year = {2013},
	pmid = {24022890},
	keywords = {future, history, methods, philosophy},
	pages = {kwt172},
	file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/4JKVHVNV/Galea - 2013 - An Argument for a Consequentialist Epidemiology.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/VWUXW26M/aje.html:text/html}
}

@inproceedings{rasmussen_infinite_1999,
	title = {The infinite {Gaussian} mixture model.},
	volume = {12},
	url = {http://www.kyb.tue.mpg.de/fileadmin/user_upload/files/publications/pdfs/pdf2299.pdf},
	urldate = {2015-05-15},
	booktitle = {{NIPS}},
	author = {Rasmussen, Carl Edward},
	year = {1999},
	pages = {554--560},
	file = {[PDF] from mpg.de:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/JM2FMQZS/Rasmussen - 1999 - The infinite Gaussian mixture model..pdf:application/pdf}
}

@book{taddy_bayesian_2008,
	title = {Bayesian nonparametric analysis of conditional distributions and inference for {Poisson} point processes},
	url = {http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=z-JDymHK1agC&oi=fnd&pg=PR5&dq=Bayesian+Nonparametric+analysis+of+conditional+distributions+and+inference+for+poisson+point+processes&ots=6t-7JE0e5I&sig=3IQNjRLhVIKky4b41s9uTc6IJzY},
	urldate = {2015-05-15},
	publisher = {ProQuest},
	author = {Taddy, Matthew Alan},
	year = {2008},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/coryzigler/Library/Application Support/Firefox/Profiles/wddgyyzp.default/zotero/storage/4PZW8AS2/books.html:text/html}
}

@misc{guo_rstan:_2015,
	title = {Rstan: {The} {{R}} {Interface} to {Stan}, version 2.4},
	author = {Guo, Jigiang and Betancourt, Michael and Brubaker, Marcus and Carpenter, Bob and Goodrich, Ben and Hoffman, Matt and Lee, Daniel and Li, Peter and Morris, Mitzi and Trangucci, Rob and Gelman, Andrew},
	year = {2015}
}